Forex Blog

July 27, 2010

Market Surfing!

Filed under: Forex News — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 1:30 pm

Now may be the time to “ride the wave” in the markets as the major news of the summer, the Euro bank stress tests, were received positively by the market.  Yesterday I commented on the credibility of those tests, and reminded readers to follow the market rather than impose their own view.

So far this morning the market is in risk-taking mode, as CPI data will begin to be released tomorrow in the Euro zone and Australia.  Higher readings may show that policy adjustments may need to take place, especially in Australia.

Adding to Euro strength is the news from the Basel committee on Banking Supervision who announced they would be seeking new measures to shore up the global banking system.

In the UK, a CBI report showed that household spending increased at its fastest pace in nearly 3 years, lending support to the view that economic recovery is taking place.

This morning, US consumer confidence figures and home prices are due out, and yesterday’s housing sales figures were bad historically, yet the market reacted favorably because they were higher than expected.  The market also seemed to overlook the revised figures from last month, which showed a much lower figure.

In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD):  The Aussie is higher as risk appetite has increased due to a positive economic outlook in the markets.  CPI data is due out tomorrow and should those figures come in higher than expected, the market may expect a further rate hike at the next RBA rate policy meeting.

Kiwi (NZD):   The Kiwi is also higher on risk themes going into the RBNZ rate policy meeting tomorrow night.  The expectation is for a rate hike of 25bp to 3%, but pay attention to the policy statement as the Kiwi is closing in on 2010 highs.

Loonie (CAD):   The Loonie is also higher as oil has surged to 79.50 in addition to general risk appetite.  There is no real news on the docket until Friday, when Canada reports GDP figures.

Euro (EUR):   The Euro is also mostly higher, trading largely as expected according to our risk ladder.  Consumer confidence figures and import prices were higher in Germany, showing continued strength in the Euro zone’s largest economy.  This shows a renewed outlook for growth but don’t expect tomorrow’s CPI data to affect monetary policy just yet, as the ECB cannot start raising rates until after the sovereign debt issues of the countries in trouble are rectified.

Pound (GBP):   The Pound is higher across the board as CBI reported sales data showed that household spending increased at the fastest pace in nearly 3 years.  This CBI gauge showed a reading of 33 vs. an expectation of 3.  So it beat handily and the market has responded accordingly as economic growth prospects have advanced.

Dollar (USD):   The Dollar is lower as a “normal” risk-appetite scenario is taking place this morning.  The home price index came in showing a slight increase which is a good sign in that prices aren’t still falling.  However, with the end of the homebuyer tax credit, this may not be the case going forward and as always, the economic prospects here in the US will come down to jobs growth.

Yen (JPY):   The Yen is lower across the board as risk appetite has increased the demand for carry trades.  Recent Yen strength vs. the Dollar has heightened the awareness of possible intervention, but the BOJ appears (for now) to let the market dictate prices.  Japanese employment and CPI data are due out on Thursday night.

So if the market tells you it wants to go up, you should listen.  Many times traders (myself included) try to interpret market news and data and then make predictions of what they think should happen.  A better way to approach the markets is to follow trends that you see on the charts, and then act accordingly.  Try to find low-risk entry points based on technical support and resistance, and then hop on and enjoy the ride.

The news we have been receiving as of late has largely been positive and has emboldened risk appetite.  While there are bound to be hiccups along the way; use them to your advantage by buying pullbacks or selling rallies.

The global economy is still fragile, but every passing day that does not bring bad news should be viewed as a positive for risk appetite.   Money has to flow somewhere, and if you can catch it just right, you may be in for a great ride!

To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!

To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here!  Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!

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Loonie, Canadian Stocks Set to Open Higher

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 1:14 pm

Several iconic Canadian companies have reported dramatic increases in both revenue and profit this week, boosting the Canadian dollar by more than half a cent to 97.45 US cents. The Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) is also expected to open higher this morning as additional earnings reports are made public.

Source: The Canadian Press

European Bank Profits Spark Rally

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 12:59 pm

Better-than-expected profits from a couple of European banking giants helped push stock markets higher this morning. UBS AG, Switzerland’s largest bank, and Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s largest bank, posted quarterly net income of 2.01 billion Swiss francs ($1.91 billion), and 1.16 billion euros ($1.51 billion), respectively.

“It appears the European banks have done slightly better than their U.S. counterparts,” said Henk Potts, who helps oversee about $235 billion at Barclays Stockbrokers Ltd. in London. Even so, the “underlying outlook remains one of caution,” he said.

Source: Bloomberg

Roll the Dice EUR Up or Down

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 10:06 am

Everyone and their mother have been telling anyone who will listen how the EUR is to go higher after the stress test results last week. It’s agreed that yesterday was a slow grind higher with no conviction. There seems to be no enthusiasm to jump on board ‘the gravy train’ just yet. The EUR is struggling to stay above the 1.30 print even thought market sentiment remains accommodating for risk. The dollar on the other hand is creeping higher across the board on expectations of stronger data this week. In broad terms, analysts want to be sellers up to 1.32, but will they get the opportunity? Not at this pace. The market seems jaded and position-less, watching equities creeping higher, waiting for the noise to begin before entering the fray. Before one knows it, they will have missed the opportunity!

The US$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 13 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘whippy’ trading range.

Forex heatmap

Yesterday’s US data showed that new home sales increased last month (+330k), but the revisions were significant. Sales of new single-family homes beat expectations, rising +23.6% seasonally adjusted, while y/y sales were down -16.7%. Despite the somewhat bullish headline print, revisions to May’s print were significant. It was originally estimated that new home sales plunged to +300k (lowest level in 47-years), but revised numbers revealed even weaker results, down -267k units (all-time low). Analysts note that despite last months increase, new home sales are still -21.8% below the Apr. high of +422k units (just before the first-time homebuyers’ tax credit expired). Digging deeper, one notices that the mortgage applications index is currently just above the 1997 lows, proof of a further weakness in June. The inventory of unsold houses now sits at 7.6 months with the median (-1.4%) and mean (-9.8%) price declining further. It’s further proof of the strength of the ongoing recession in the housing market. One should expect high unemployment, tight credit conditions and low confidence to keep housing activity weak for some time.

The USD$ is higher against the EUR -0.10%, GBP -0.13%, CHF -0.68% and JPY -0.39%. The commodity currencies are mixed this morning, CAD +0.11% and AUD -0.14%. The loonie continues to gain momentum, outright vs. the dollar and on the crosses, mostly on the back of a stronger commodity and equity market. The belief that Cbanks will use it as a proxy for a reserve currency status could push the currency higher in the medium term. Last week the BOF tightened rates 25bp. The interest rate differential scenario seems to be getting the biggest support for now, despite it being a ‘dovish hike’. Governor Carney stated that there was no pre-ordained path for interest rates in Canada. According to his dovish communiqué ‘the global economic recovery is proceeding, but, is not yet self-sustaining’. The 25bp hike last week will ‘leave considerable monetary stimulus in place’, with both the core and total inflation to advance at about a +2% annual rate through 2012 (within their target zone). Some will argue that with signs of a significant slowdown underway in the US, it’s possible that the BOC may be persuaded to move back to the sidelines on the Sept. go-around. Carney has given himself the latitude to step back and assess global growth for the 3rd Q.

This morning the AUD is trading well above the 90c level, its strongest print in 6-months, ahead of reports this week that is expected to give the RBA more reason to raise interest rates again. Analysts expect further strength from the currency near term, but find it unlikely to top this year’s high (0.9390) as China’s slowdown is expected to become more obvious near term. The currency has rallied a fourth straight day vs. the JPY after regional bourses advanced now that most European banks passed the stress tests and US corporate earnings surpassed market expectations. The market is also expecting a stronger CPI report this evening, which again will put the RBA under the spot light to hike rates at the Aug. 3rd policy meeting. The pace of CPI increased nearly doubled to +0.9% in the first quarter. Policy makers are ‘reinstating their view that domestic growth will be about trend’ and are ‘not alarmed by the global demand backdrop’. In retrospect, policy makers remain ‘very upbeat’. Because of equities actions, the market is a cautious buyer on pullbacks, wary that the recent strong rally technically may be overdone (0.9033).

Crude is softer in the O/N session ($78.97 down -1c). Crude prices are trying to break through their longer term resistance levels as stronger global bourses boost speculation that the global recovery in fuel demand will be sustained. This slow upward move is like pulling teeth. For weeks the black-stuff has been confined to a tight trading range. The market has been using all the excuses to vindicate their position taking, but with the stress tests out of the way, risk appetite is being applied and should drag the commodity higher despite last weeks inventory reports. The market had been expecting a drawdown on stocks. However, not so, the data showed a surprise increase, reporting a rise of +400k barrels of oil for the week whilst the market had been expecting a headline decline of -1.6m. The dovish report continued with its gas inventories rising +1.1m barrels and its stockpiles of distillates (diesel and heating oil) doubling expectations to +3.9m barrels. Once again technically, the gas markets numbers show the strength of the ‘lackluster demand’. Overall market sentiment continues to look for vindication.

Gold has been caught in a relatively tight trading range over the past 10-trading sessions, lacking a catalyst to carry momentum to the upside again. The commodity has been fighting its technical support 100-day moving average. Prices have found it rather difficult to gravitate too far from the $1,185-88 magnet. Dealers expect investors to dump their remaining long positions on a ‘true’ break of this level. The commodity fell for a second consecutive day yesterday on signs that demand for the metal as an investment haven is slowing as the EUR continues to stabilize against most of its trading partners. Bigger picture, technically, the bullish sentiment had been on hiatus with profit taking testing the medium term support levels. Fundamentally, in the short term the metal will find it difficult to rally aggressively as this is the ‘slowest’ season for physical demand. Year-to-date, the commodity has gained +7.8% and is in danger of giving up more ($1,188 +$1.00).

The Nikkei closed at 9,496 down -7. The DAX index in Europe was at 6,224 up +30; the FTSE (UK) currently is 5,386 up +36. The early call for the open of key US indices is higher. The US 10-year backed up 3bp yesterday (3.00%) and is little changed in the O/N session. After printing new record low yields, the US front-end plunged on higher earnings easing concerns that the Fed may have to consider more stimulus measures to help sustain the US economic recovery. With the Treasury planning to auction $104b of new product this week ($38b 2’s, $37b 5’s and $29b 7’s), cumulatively lower that the previous two months, will certainly have dealers wanting to cheapen the curve a tad at these technically ‘rich’ low–yields. With new US home sales yesterday rising last month has also helped to pressurize the curve. Current market sentiment has dealers wanting to be better buyers on deeper pull backs.

July 26, 2010

Daily Forex Trading on the Rise

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 8:22 pm

Latest figures show that while daily forex volumes have not yet recovered to the levels traded prior to the global credit crisis, investors are once again embracing the forex trade. London continues to lead other financial centers, with average volumes for the beginning of the year to April, averaging $1.747 trillion daily. This is a gain of 31 percent over the same time last year, and when compared to October 2009, represents a gain of 15 percent.

The Tokyo Foreign Exchange Committee noted that the country’s 20 largest banks have combined for a 15.8 percent increase in forex trading during the first quarter of the year. Daily volumes increase to $294.1 billion a day in April, with the USD / JPY currency pair accounting for more than 60 percent of the daily totals.

The US market also made progress towards recovery. Hit hard as hedge funds and large banks curtailed trading during the global credit crisis, the New York Federal Reserve Bank revealed that average US daily volume reached $754 billion in April. This is an increase of 11.8 percent compared to October 2009, and a full 43 percent increase from April 2009.

Oil Prices Fall as Tropical Storm Bonnie Weakens

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 1:45 pm

With the downgrading of Tropical Storm Bonnie easing the threat of damage to oil wells in the Gulf of Mexico, oil prices fell towards $78 a barrel on Monday. By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for September delivery was down 56 cents at $78.42 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 32 cents to settle at $78.98 on Friday.

Source: The Associated Press

Suspend Your Disbelief!

Filed under: Forex News — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 1:35 pm

One of the things I mentioned on Friday with regard to the European bank stress tests is that they had to be believable.  The results came in on Friday and by and large were viewed as positive by the market.  There was some interesting volatility in the forex market, as the news trickled in and was digested.

But the question remains, can we really believe those results?  Only 7 of the 91 banks tested need to raise more capital, and none of the banks were deemed likely to fail.  This has left many questioning the methods used to test, and the assumptions made to show banking strength.

So what this all really comes down to is whether or not confidence has been restored to the marketplace.  Officials have been trumpeting the results and are attempting to move forward from the tests, claiming the exercise a success.  Only time will tell if this is the case.

On our side of the pond in the US, we have a similar crisis of confidence taking place.  Investors are clearly not enamored with the prospects of the US economy, yet officials here will tell you otherwise.  The 10-year Treasury note is currently under 3%, so the talking heads will tell you that it is a “success” that we are able to issue debt with such low rates of interest.

Treasury Secretary Geithner has told us that it is confidence in the US economy that allows this to happen; however, I think otherwise.  The fact of the matter is that the US is “the only game in town” at this point, with so many other economies depending on US economic strength or having issues of their own.  This is another case of the US winning the “least ugly” prize in the global economic beauty pageant.

How much longer this charade will continue is anyone’s guess; but the little time we have been afforded by European weakness is bound to expire with every passing day that we don’t fix the economic ills that plague the US.  But one thing is sure; the Dollar is weaker this morning as everyone has caught on to the ruse.

In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD):  The Aussie is lower this morning as PPI figures came in much lower than expected.  The PPI gained .3% vs. an expectation of .8%.  The true tell-tale will be Wednesday’s CPI figure, which if higher than expected would show the need for further rate hikes going forward.  Should the number come in closer to the PPI data, then the chance of further rate hikes would be greatly reduced, which could put pressure on the Aussie.

Kiwi (NZD):  The Kiwi is mixed this morning trading higher against the other risk currencies on interest rate differential speculation and US dollar weakness, but lower vs. Yen and Euro.  Wednesday evening will bring the RBNZ rate policy meeting and at this point the expectation is for a 25bp hike.

Loonie (CAD):   The Loonie is also mixed as oil is lower to 78.25, but still near recent highs.  Dollar weakness is not the dragging the Loonie lower as might be expected and Canadian bankruptcies fell 9.2% showing that the economy may be on better footing.

Euro (EUR):  The Euro is also mixed as the market is trying to decide what to make of the stress tests.  Obvious US dollar weakness has contributed to its strength and should the market decide to move past the stress tests, then CPI and employment figures later this week will come back into focus.

Pound (GBP):  The Pound is higher across the board in a continuation of last week’s gains despite the fact that housing price figures fell for the first time in nearly 15 months.  This is the sort of news the BOE is hoping for, as rising inflation could equal rate hikes in an uncertain economic climate curtailed by fiscal austerity.

Dollar (USD):   The Dollar is lower across the board.  Some of it risk appetite, some of it due to lousy economic policy.  There isn’t much that could happen here in the US to make me positive on the Dollar, so watch risk around the globe as that may be the only driver of dollar strength as a safe-haven asset.

Yen (JPY):   The Yen started out the morning higher but is giving back some gains as risk appetite may be gaining traction.  Part of this is Dollar weakness, the part being tacit acceptance of the Euro bank stress tests.  Later this week Japan will report CPI data which is expected to show continued deflation.  The question will be whether or not deflation is slowing or what, if anything, the BOJ and government intend to do about it.

Part of financial market participation requires a suspension of disbelief and an acceptance that things may not always be as they seem.   I tell my mentor clients all of the time: the purpose of investing in markets is to make money, not to always be right.

So while I may disagree with the way things are going or with the “truth” as it is reported, I am always willing to put my personal feelings aside and to join in with market to reach my end goal: making money.  It doesn’t make sense to fight the market as “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”.

This was one of the first mantras drilled into my head as I began my trading career, and now more than ever do I realize its truth.  I hope you do as well.

To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!

To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here!  Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!

Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, cad, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency trading, dollar, dow, economy, EUR, Euro, forex, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, Il, interest, jpy, market, Mike Conlon, news, nzd, practice, ssi, time, USD

Geithner Says Economy Not Likely to Fall Back Into Recession

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 1:24 pm

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told ABC’s “This Week” that it was very unlikely that the US economy could slip back into recession. Geithner also suggested that allowing tax cuts for wealthy American to expire, is necessary to show commitment to cutting budget deficits.

“We think that’s the responsible thing to do because we need to make sure we can show the world that (we’re) willing as a country now to start to make some progress bringing down our long-term deficits.”

Source: Reuters

Stress Test Results Have Banks Shares on the Rise

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: , , , , , , , — admin @ 1:12 pm

Shares in European banks rose Monday as the markets reviewed the results of the banking system stress tests over the weekend. Seven of the 91 European banks that underwent stress tests failed. They included five Spanish banks, one German bank and one Greek bank.

“The results of the European banks’ stress tests have provided some degree of comfort to equity markets,” said Bernard McAlinden at NCB Stockbrokers.

Source: BBC News

Holding a EUR position is playing with fire

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 9:48 am

Is it enough to convince investors? European regulators found that ‘only’ seven banks need to raise a combined EUR3.5b of capital. From all the monies that have been given out and promised by various Governments the sum sounds like pittance. Are the tests strict enough? Is it another ploy to support global confidence, to bamboozle the negativity and second guessing that is in danger of spiraling into oblivion? On the first pass, it seems that the tests were set in such a way that most of them would pass. Perhaps the regulators and governments commitments may well outweigh doubts about the stringency of the tests. Market reaction thus far is undecided.

The US$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 12 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘whippy’ trading range.

Forex heatmap

Initial reaction had market participants welcoming the results of the stress tests, driving appetite for higher risk in Asia. The European session, however, is questioning the ‘rigor and credibility of the tests’, specifically the worst case macro-scenario and the haircuts applied to sovereign debt. The lack of transparency and credibility in the tests is likely to limit the upside to the EUR temporarily. The latest CFTC reports show that the EUR shorts have been trimmed further, another reason not to trade much higher in the short term.

The USD$ is lower against the EUR +0.31%, GBP +0.40%, CHF +0.18% and JPY +0.58%. The commodity currencies are stronger this morning, CAD +0.18% and AUD +0.30%. The loonie got the nod from various sources last week. A strong commodity and equity market, its proxy for a reserve currency status and finally from a central bank who happened to tighten rates 25bp pushed the currency higher. The interest rate differential scenario seems to be getting the biggest support for now, despite it being a ‘dovish hike’. The currency rose again on Friday vs. its largest trading partner as most European banks that received stress tests passed. Governor Carney enforced that there was no pre-ordained path for interest rates in Canada. According to Carney’s dovish communiqué ‘the global economic recovery is proceeding, but, is not yet self-sustaining’. The 25bp hike last week will ‘leave considerable monetary stimulus in place’, with both the core and total inflation to advance at about a +2% annual rate through 2012 (within their target zone). Some will argue that with signs of a significant slowdown underway in the US, it’s possible that the BOC may be persuaded to move back to the sidelines on the Sept. go-around. Carney has given himself the latitude to step back and assess global growth for the 3rd Q. Stronger commodity and equity prices favor buying CAD on pull backs.

The AUD is encroaching on its 3-month high vs. the USD, as signs that the global economy is stabilizing is spurring investor demand for higher-yielding assets. Option barrier protection is occurring around the 0.9000 level at the moment. The currency has rallied a third straight day vs. the JPY after regional bourses advanced now that most European banks passed the stress tests and US corporate earnings surpassed market expectations. The market is also expecting a stronger CPI report this week from down-under, which again will put the RBA under the spot light to hike rates at the Aug. 3rd policy meeting. The currency gained +2.9% vs. the greenback last week after the RBA’s July minutes showed that Governor Stevens intends to use results of Europe’s stress tests and local inflation figures to decide whether to resume raising rates. The pace of CPI increased nearly doubled to +0.9% in the first quarter. Fundamental analysts believe it would take another rate hike for the currency to trade again in the 90’s and technically it’s a sell on approaching these levels. Policy makers are ‘reinstating their view that domestic growth will be about trend’ and are ‘not alarmed by the global demand backdrop’. In retrospect, policy makers remain ‘very upbeat’. Because of equities actions, the market is a cautious buyer on pullbacks, wary that the recent strong rally technically may be overdone (0.8975).

Crude is softer in the O/N session ($78.52 down -46c). Crude prices fell from just under a three month high on Friday on speculation that Tropical Storm Bonnie would not be strong enough to damage production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Proven to be true and after last weeks strong rally, technically, the market was going to cash in somewhat on the advance. For most of last week, prices rallied as global bourses advanced on signals that economic growth will accelerate. Also supporting investors selling actions are last weeks surprising EIA report. The market had been expecting a drawdown on inventories. However, not so, stocks showed a surprise increase, reporting a rise of +400k barrels of oil for the week whilst the market had been expecting a headline decline of -1.6m. The dovish report continued with its gas inventories rising +1.1m barrels and its stockpiles of distillates (diesel and heating oil) doubling expectations to +3.9m barrels. Once again technically, the gas markets numbers show ‘lackluster demand and will put pressure on the entire energy complex’. We continue to remain range bound with the price action as the market looks for vindication.

Gold has been caught in a relatively tight trading range over the past 10-trading sessions, lacking a catalyst to carry momentum to the upside again. The commodity has been fighting its technical support 100-day moving average. Prices have found it rather difficult to gravitate too far from the $1,185-88 magnet. Dealers expect investors to dump their remaining long positions on a break of this level. Tentatively, gold futures are trying to rebound on speculation that the Fed will act to stimulate US growth. This action should drive the dollar lower and boost the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative asset. At the moment it’s has been frustrating for investors to buy into the intraday story, the ‘too and froing’ of the price action in a tight range has proven expensive. With the results of the stress tests going relatively well thus far is causing little flight to quality buying in the gold market. Bigger picture, technically, the bullish sentiment had been on hiatus with profit taking testing the medium term support levels. Fundamentally, in the short term the metal will find it difficult to rally aggressively as this is the ‘slowest’ season for physical demand. Year-to-date, the commodity has gained +8.8% and is in danger of giving up more ($1,190 +$3.00).

The Nikkei closed at 9,503 up +73. The DAX index in Europe was at 6,154 down -12; the FTSE (UK) currently is 5,313 up +2. The early call for the open of key US indices is lower. The US 10-year backed up 7bp on Friday (2.97%) and is little changed in the O/N session. After printing new record low yields, the US front-end plunged on higher earnings easing concerns that the Fed may have to consider more stimulus measures to help sustain the US economic recovery. With the Treasury planning to auction $104b of new product this week ($38b 2’s, $37b 5’s and $29b 7’s), cumulatively lower that the previous two months, will certainly have dealers wanting to cheapen the curve a tad at these technically ‘rich’ low–yields. Current market sentiment has dealers wanting to be better buyers on deeper pull backs, as the market foresees a flatter yield curve as analysts predict that 10’s will yield 2.75% by year-end.

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