While these numbers are far from excellent, the news that they were not worse than expected is seen as an encouraging sign that the economy here in the US may not be as bad as was previously thought.  The major challenge that the US economy is facing is how to put people back to work.

Employment sparks the cycle of spending, consumption, then growth.  The US consumer represents roughly two-thirds of US GDP; so if people are out of work they are not spending which reduces growth.

And while one reading does not make a trend, this is an encouraging sign after all of the doom and gloom experienced last month.  However, we still have a LONG way to go with regard to the employment picture, as roughly 200K jobs added a month are needed just to keep pace with new entrants into the workforce.  So before we get too excited, let’s remember that the overall figure is still a LOSS of jobs.  The fact that private sector job increased is the most positive take away from this report.

There is a dearth of news from around the globe, and the market is most definitely in risk taking mode.

In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD):   The Aussie is higher this morning as risk appetite has increased.  A report out of Goldman Sachs said that the RBA could begin raising rates again in November. (Click chart to enlarge)

Kiwi (NZD):   The Kiwi is also higher on risk appetite and the lack of news has it trading on risk themes.

Loonie (CAD):   The Loonie is also higher on risk appetite as oil prices have rebounded from earlier lows and are back above $75.  In addition, the Loonie has been beaten up pretty badly of late as the negative news of last month has mostly been coming from the US economy.

Euro (EUR):   The Euro is trading mixed this morning, mostly lower against the commodity currencies but higher vs. Dollar and Yen.  Euro zone PMI figures came in slightly better than expected but retail sales for the month were lower by .1% vs. an expectation of a gain of .2%.

Pound (GBP):  The Pound is catching a nice bounce today from risk appetite as austerity measures have affected recent economic data to the downside.  So the Pound has been weaker of late, yet the UK economy still appears to be on the right track.  However, PMI figures came in less than expected.  (Click chart to enlarge)

Dollar (USD):   The Dollar is weaker this morning as risk appetite due to the NFP report has been seen as encouraging.  Much of the negative economic news in the global economy has been coming from the US, so a better than expected report is viewed as positive.

Yen (JPY):  The Yen is weaker across the board as risk-taking has discouraged demand for safe havens.  The Yen has been strengthening of late as the market is testing the resolve of policy-makers to intervene in the currency.  (Click chart to enlarge)

The obvious driver of markets today is the Non-Farm Payrolls and the better-than-expected result has encouraged risk appetite.  Not to be a “Debbie Downer”, but this number still needs to improve immensely before we get back to normal.

Perhaps economic policy will change to further encourage business and hiring, but at this point I don’t see it happening as quickly as it needs to.

Happy Labor Day to All!

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Source: AFP News

Oil prices have traded between $70 and $80 for most of the past year as the global economy recovered from last year’s recession, but developed countries struggled to regain strong growth. U.S. crude and fuel inventories have remained high, suggesting the demand for fuel remains sluggish.

Source: Associated Press

The one bright note was the private sector created more jobs than expected during the month with 67,000 new positions filled. The net result however, was still negative adding further to worries that increasing unemployment could derail any recovery.

Source: Reuters

The US$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 11 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘subdued’ trading range in the O/N session.

We had a plethora of data to digest yesterday ahead of this mornings highly anticipated employment report. It will either be a snooze, non-event heading into this long North American weekend or the results will force traders to react like ‘elephants in a china shop’. In his communiqué yesterday, Trichet met market expectations, again announcing that emergency lending facilities would be extended into next year. Somewhat of a surprise was the EU’s policy maker’s small upward revision to next year’s views. They now expect to come inside a range of +0.5% to +2.3% (up from +0.2% to 2.2%). Could they not have made it any wider! The inflation outlook was also revised up a tad to a range of +1.2-2.2%. It’s worth noting and not surprising that they again identified risks to the downside and flagged renewed tensions in financial markets. Policy makers have no intention ‘to signal any change in rates and remains apart from experiments elsewhere with respect to providing rate guidance’.



The dreaded weekly claims reports potentially points to a downside risk to this morning employment print. Analysts note that initial claims (+472k vs. +475k) remains ‘stubbornly elevated and at a level inconsistent with any expectation for meaningful job growth’ and supportive of renewed private job losses. Digging deeper, continuing claims fell by -23k to +4.456m (2nd consecutive week of declines). Up to date, the average has been hovering around the +4.5m mark as claims push further into extended (+894k) and emergency (+4.1m) categories. Since bottoming at the end of the 1st Q, extended benefits have surged higher by +531.6%. Not to be out done, emergency benefits have seen a similar fate and rallied +50%. With unemployment assistance being extended until the end of Nov. has caused the massive surge in both categories.

And finally, US pending home sales unexpectedly jumped yesterday (+5.2% vs. -1%). Any other day and the market would have paid more heed, but, a day before NFP where market participants try to batten down the hatches, there was no excitement. Technically this is the first ‘bullish’ news we have had to digest in the US housing market for some time. Analysts have been quick to explain the huge monthly jump away, the growth is coming off the lowest base ever (June was all-time record low). On level terms, the July data is only ‘ever so slightly better’ and remains insufficient to counter mounting stockpiles of unsold and shadow inventories. So, it’s back to our doomsday housing scenario. 



The USD$ is lower against the EUR +0.05% and higher against GBP -0.01%, CHF -0.17% and JPY -0.10%. The commodity currencies are weaker this morning, CAD -0.18% and AUD -0.15%. The loonie pared some of its euphoric rise, a day after its largest gain in three-months, on concern that US job losses will stall the global economic recovery. Next week’s BOC call is a spilt vote amongst analysts. Fact, futures are pricing in a +40% chance of the BOC tightening. It’s probably one of the toughest calls over the last decade. A string of disappointing Canadian data and a darkening global outlook have weighed heavily on the market’s conviction for a Sept. hike. Last month, the CAD happened to post one of its worst performing months in over a year, falling -3.5% vs. the dollar. The dollar has now capped a triple top at 1.0675 and will prove a formidable support level for the currency again. Canada is not immune to weaker data reported south of its borders. It is only natural that growth and interest rate sensitive currencies would experience some volatile moves on changing risk attitudes. A shortened holiday week will continue to keep the market on its toes.

The AUD fell in the O/N session vs. all its major trading partners ahead of this mornings NFP report. The market anticipates further job cuts this month which is dampening the demand for higher-yielding growth currencies. Investors continue to speculate that the RBA will keep interest rates unchanged next week. The currency has underperformed against all of its major trading partners and is expected to do so until there is a new Government formed. The commodity rich currency is not isolated, as other growth sensitive currencies are suffering the same fate. Government data has also happened to put a lid on the recent rally. Net result traders are adding to their bets that the RBA will leave interest rates unchanged for the next 12-months. Interest rate differentials play a big part of the currency’s attractiveness (0.9100).

Crude is lower in the O/N session ($74.67 -35c). Crude prices yesterday advanced, paring earlier losses, after a rig in the Gulf of Mexico was struck by an explosion, reinforcing concern that US regulations will reduce output in the region. Stronger economic growth data happened to provide a leg up for the ‘black-stuff’ earlier this week. Aiding the commodity was the weekly EIA report revealing an unexpected decline in supplies of distillate fuels. Distillates (heating oil and diesel), fell -739k barrels to +175.2m. The market had been expecting the inventory to increase by +1.15m barrels. Inventories of crude itself advanced +3.42m barrels to +361.7m Supplies were forecast to climb by +1.2m. On the face of it, the weekly report should have been market bearish, but investors happily ignored the data as they found solace in Chinese and US manufacturing data showing new signs of growth. How long is this sustainable? Perhaps NFP will bring even more surprises? In reality, oil hovers just above this month’s low, on concerns that weaker economic data will push the US into a double-dip recession. The market should be wary that the underlying situation has not changed, the fundamentals remain very weak, demand does not look good and stockpiles of crude and products remain at a record high. Speculators remain better sellers on up-ticks in the short term.

Gold prices continue to advance on its record high print recorded earlier this year as investors seek to protect their wealth. The uncertainty of recent data has had investors contemplating boosting their demand for the commodity as a safe heaven. Last month, bullion appreciated +5.2% alone. The market would not be that surprised to see some sort of technical pull back supported by profit taking selling if investors embraced more risk. Consumers are trying to put there cash somewhere more solid on mounting evidence of a US economic slowdown. Speculators again are supporting the various safe heaven assets on pullbacks, avoiding risky assets due to uncertainties in the markets. With a genuine fear for global growth, by default, should boost the demand for the metal as a protector of wealth in the grand scheme of things. With treasury yields expected to remain close to their lows, could promote a quickening inflation rate, which would promote pushing commodity prices even higher. The opportunity costs of holding gold are low due to falling interest rates ($1,254 +60c).

The Nikkei closed at 9,114 up +51. The DAX index in Europe was at 6,093 up +10; the FTSE (UK) currently is 5,376 up +5. The early call for the open of key US indices is lower. The US 10-year backed up 4bp yesterday (2.61%) and is little changed in the O/N session. Treasuries fell a second consecutive day as a surprise pending home re-sales print coupled with a drop in the initial jobless claims data reduced, temporarily at least, the relative safety of government debt. The curve had become too rich and the overbought asset class was due for some sort of correction. Again the curve 2’s/10’s spread has widened 2bp to +211bp after flattening sub +200bp a matter of days ago. Treasuries also after the government announced the sizes of the $67b three debt sales next week (3’s, 10’s and long bonds). Despite product becoming expensive on the curve, NFP uncertainty has debt better bid on pullbacks.

“The rate of layoffs is still uncomfortably high,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. “This continues to feed the unemployment rolls. We see no reason to expect an acceleration in consumer spending.”

Source: Bloomberg

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the eurozone recovery has been supported by global growth and reflected “temporary domestic factors”.

He added, however, that “uncertainty still prevails”.

“One the one hand, global trade may continue to perform more strongly than expected, thereby supporting euro area exports,” he said. “On the other hand, concerns remain relating to the emergence of renewed tensions in financial markets and to some uncertainty about growth prospects in other advanced economies.”

Source: BBC News

The US$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 12 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘subdued’ trading range in the O/N session.

The word unemployment gives one a headache in the US. Yesterday’s ADP report disappointed with renewed job losses (-10k vs. +20k), showing a trend reversal that had been in place over the last quarter. We should have been well prepared for this after noticing jobless claims picking up steam since July. Even other recent indicators suggest that US employment will follow further in a lagged fashion. Bears will have us believe that the release will support the call for a ‘very’ mild private sector job growth in tomorrow’s NFP print. Already analysts have revised down private employment from +48k to ‘0’. Historically, ADP has always had issues in terms of translating into NFP swings. Digging deeper, the revisions were mild, with the previous month losing -5k to +37k. Most of the losses were recorded in the in the goods-producing sector (-40k, m/m), while the services sector happily added jobs (+30k). Within the goods-producing sub-sector, employment in manufacturing fell -6k (second consecutive monthly decline). The other main sub-sectors, construction and finance fell -33k and -5k respectively. It’s worth noting that medium and small-size businesses reduced their workforce by -5k and -6k each. On the services side, small businesses happened to add +15k jobs. Tomorrows NFP looks like it wants to throw the cat amongst the pigeons!

It’s surprising to see the US ISM report discounting the ADP private manufacturing job loss trend (-40k). Last month, manufacturing expanded at a faster pace than had been expected (56.3 vs. 53.2), as factories added workers and beefed up production. With the data gravitating further away from the ‘contraction’ median, the initial response by the market had investors believing the rebound in the ISM data negates some of the market concerns that the global economy will slow as governments withdraw stimulus measures. Digging deeper, the production sub-category index increased for the first time in 4-months, while the employment indicator happened to register its strongest print in 37-years. Analysts expect production to taper off on the back of future weaker bookings being recorded, while backlogs ease further. All eyes will become fixated on tomorrows NFP report.

The USD$ is lower against the EUR +0.10%, CHF +0.41% and JPY +0.45% and higher against GBP -0.43%.The commodity currencies are weaker this morning, CAD -0.13% and AUD -0.38%. Fact, 2/3rd of analysts expect Carney to hike next week. Fact, futures are pricing in a +40% chance of the BOC tightening. It’s probably one of the toughest calls over the last decade. A string of disappointing Canadian data and a darkening global outlook have weighed heavily on the market’s conviction for a Sept. hike. Yesterday, the loonie did an about face and aggressively appreciated against its largest trading partner as risk appetite once again emerged, pushing global bourses and commodity prices higher on the back of stronger manufacturing data out of China and the US. Last month, the CAD happened to post one of its worst performing months in over a year, falling -3.5% vs. the dollar. The dollar has now capped a triple top at 1.0675 and will prove a formidable support level for the currency again. Canada is not immune to weaker data reported south of its borders. It is only natural that growth and interest rate sensitive currencies would experience some volatile moves on changing risk attitudes. Expect dealers to tighten up their position heading into NFP tomorrow.

The AUD fell in the O/N session from its three-week high after a government report showed the trade surplus shrank in July more than the market had been anticipating (1.89b vs. 3.11b). The currency happened to depreciate against all of its 16 major trading partners as the countrys export data also fell to its lowest level in 7-months. On the whole, concerns that global growth is slowing has damped investor appetite for higher-yielding assets again. Ping-pong is like a new form of trading strategy! Back and forth with risk appetite. The currency has underperformed against all of its major trading partners and is expected to do so until there is a new Government formed. The commodity rich currency is not isolated, as other growth sensitive currencies are suffering the same fate. Government data has also happened to put a lid on the recent rally. Net result traders are adding to their bets that the RBA will leave interest rates unchanged for the next 12-months. Interest rate differentials play a big part of the currency’s attractiveness. Perhaps all this will change with tomorrows NFP print (0.9088).

Crude is higher in the O/N session ($74.01 up +10c). Crude prices advanced yesterday after manufacturing data in both the US and China (the world’s biggest energy-consuming countries) accelerated at a faster pace than expected this month. The commodity happened to maintain its gain after the weekly EIA report revealed an unexpected decline in supplies of distillate fuels. Distillates (heating oil and diesel), fell -739k barrels to +175.2m. The market had been expecting the inventory to increase by +1.15m barrels. Inventories of crude itself advanced +3.42m barrels to +361.7m Supplies were forecast to climb by +1.2m. On the face of it, the weekly report build is market bearish, but investors happily ignored the data as they found solace from the manufacturing data showing new signs of growth. How long is this sustainable? Perhaps NFP will bring even more surprises? In reality, oil hovers just above this month’s low, on concerns that weaker economic data will push the US into a double-dip recession. The market should be wary that the underlying situation has not changed, the fundamentals remain very weak, demand does not look good and stockpiles of crude and products remain at a record high. Speculators remain better sellers on up-ticks in the short term.

Gold prices happened to print a 2-month high earlier this week and yesterday price action was little changed despite global equities soaring on the back of stronger manufacturing reports. The uncertainty of recent data has had investors contemplating boosting their demand for the commodity as a safe heaven. For the month of Aug., bullion has appreciated just under +5%. All last week investors have sought sanctuary in the safer heaven asset classes on the back of weaker equity markets. The market would not be that surprised to see some sort of technical pull back supported by profit taking selling as investors embrace more risk on the back of stronger data. Investors are trying to put there cash somewhere more solid on mounting evidence of a US economic slowdown. Speculators again are supporting the various safe heaven assets on pullbacks, avoiding risky assets due to uncertainties in the markets. With a genuine fear for global growth, by default, should boost the demand for the metal as a protector of wealth in the grand scheme of things. With treasury yields expected to remain close to their lows, could promote a quickening inflation rate, which would promote pushing commodity prices even higher. The opportunity costs of holding gold are low due to falling interest rates ($1,250 +$1.50c).

The Nikkei closed at 9,062 up +136. The DAX index in Europe was at 6,066 down -17; the FTSE (UK) currently is 5,360 down -7. The early call for the open of key US indices is lower. The US 10-year backed up 7bp yesterday (2.57%) and is little changed in the O/N session. Treasuries plummeted for the first time in three days on the back of some surprising manufacturing data out China and the US. The curve had become too rich and the overbought asset class was due for some sort of correction. Yesterday’s ISM data provided the ammunition to widen the 2’s/10’s spread to +209bp. Treasuries also declined before the government announces today the sizes of three debt sales next week (3’s, 10’s and long bonds-market anticipates $67b). Despite product becoming expensive on the curve, NFP uncertainty has debt better bid on pullbacks.

Yes, they are enacting austerity measures but they are not experiencing the crisis of confidence that we have here in the US.  This allows for more active participation in the economy, as fears have been removed about the future of policy.  In other words, they are taking their medicine.  In addition, the ECB left rates unchanged at 1% which was no surprise to anyone and will most likely remain in “crisis mode” until next year.

Conversely, here in the US companies are still afraid to hire employees as they are fearful over the economy and government policy.  With no end to the spending in sight, the “extend and pretend” policies and looming deficits and taxes and regulation and healthcare (oh my) make even the boldest of businessmen appear more scared than the cowardly lion!

As a result, Initial Jobless Claims came in slightly better than expected, showing new claims of 472K vs. an expectation of 475K.  Home sales figures are due out later this morning and my guess is that this figure is not going to be encouraging either.

In the UK, housing prices came in lower than expected which may help inflation come back down and allow the BOE to maintain accommodative policy measures throughout the austerity measures.

So this morning’s currency market action is a bit of a mixed bag, as the market can’t decide if the fundamentals support risk-taking.

In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD):   The Aussie is lower this morning as the trade balance figures came in worse than expected.  The Australian trade surplus shrank to A$ 1.89B vs. an expectation of A$3.1B.  This comes a day after better than expected GDP figures were reported yesterday.

Kiwi (NZD):   The Kiwi is actually higher this morning on—ready for it—higher powdered milk prices!!  If I had any sort of journalistic integrity I wouldn’t even mention this but the higher Kiwi seems like an anomaly to me so I’m going to go with it.  If I had to guess what is going on, I would blame stealth Chinese currency diversification. (Click chart to enlarge)

Loonie (CAD):  The Loonie is lower as crude oil prices have pulled back to 73.25 and the market prepares for tomorrow’s US Non-Farm Payrolls report.  Canada is particularly sensitive to US economic data as the US is its largest trading partner.

Euro (EUR):  The Euro is mixed this morning as the GDP figures and steady monetary policy are encouraging despite the known debt problems and commitment to austerity.  Just goes to show sound economic policy goes a long way to helping in recovery.  (Click chart to enlarge)

Pound (GBP):  The Pound is mostly lower as home prices fell signaling that inflation may again fall below the BOE upper band of 3%.  This may allow the BOE to maintain accommodative policy as austerity measures help tackle the deficit.

Dollar (USD):   I’m starting to sound like a broken record here so I’m not even going to say it.  I’m just waiting for tomorrow’s NFP figures which they market will use as a true gauge of whether or not jobs are being added to the economy.  Government models and proclamations of jobs “created or saved” ring hollow.  The proof is in the pudding, as they say.

Yen (JPY):   The Yen is showing strength again, as the market is going to test Japanese policy-makers over intervention.  The Nikkei was higher overnight so the inverse correlation of Yen to the Nikkei is not holding up today.  As the rhetoric heats up, what will Japan do?  (Click chart to enlarge)

It is becoming more and more apparent that things in the US are not getting better.  While they may not be getting worse (yet), I think we may be in a holding pattern until the November elections where hopefully the “bums get thrown out”.

There has been much talk recently that a lot of the damage has already been done and that political gridlock may not be seen by the market as a good thing.  My guess is that any change in leadership at this point is going to be viewed as positive, and if we can actually change the collision course our economy is on people might actually be able to get back to work and help the economy grow again.

Until then, expect fear to rule the markets and tomorrow’s NFP number could be the continuation of last month’s fear driven market action.

I never thought I’d say this as an American but perhaps we should be taking economic direction from the Europeans!  For their realistic assessment of how to recover while not popular is the right thing to do.

To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!

To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here!  Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!

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Much of the catalyst for this is due to Australian GDP figures which came in better than expected, and Chinese PMI figures which showed gains for the first time in 3 months.  This shows that China still has upward growth, though it is moderating.  This also bodes well for Australia, who supplies China with the raw materials it needs to sustain its growth.

In the Euro zone PMI figures showed slight gains, while in the UK, PMI figures came in worse than expected as austerity takes hold.

In the US, the ADP Employment change showed a loss of 10K jobs vs. an expectation of a gain of 15K.  This caused a slight sell-off on the news announcement, but the market has quickly blown off this reading and is awaiting the US ISM manufacturing figures which are expected to show a decline from last month.

Nevertheless, the market is in classic risk-taking mode, led by the commodity currencies and marked by Yen and Dollar weakness.
In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD):  Overnight, Australian GDP figures showed that the economy rose at the fastest pace in nearly 3 years, reporting growth of 1.2% vs. vs. an expectation of .9%, and YoY growth of 3.3% vs. an expectation of 2.8%.  Adding to Aussie strength was the Chinese PMI report which showed a return to manufacturing growth.  (Click chart to enlarge)

Kiwi (NZD):   The Kiwi is following the Aussie higher as risk appetite and yield-seeking money flows provide demand.  There is no major news out for the Kiwi for the rest of the week so expect it trade on risk themes.

Loonie (CAD):   Crude oil is higher this morning as risk appetite is driving higher commodity and stock market prices and the Loonie is along for the ride.  However, traders are paring back bets of a further rate hike as GDP figures reported yesterday came in worse than expected.

Euro (EUR):  The Euro is higher this morning as PMI figures came is slightly better than expected showing that there is still some life in the EU economy.  However, retail sales figures in Germany came in lower than expected but this is not enough to cause a change in sentiment this morning.  In addition, Portugal had another successful debt offering, as demand hasn’t waned.  (Click chart to enlarge)

Pound (GBP):   The Pound is mixed this morning as is usual under risk-taking scenarios.  However, PMI figures came in worse than expected, missing analyst expectations and showing a decline from last month.  Austerity measures in the UK may contribute to further Pound weakness going forward.  (Click chart to enlarge)

Dollar (USD):   The Dollar is weaker across the board as demand for the Greenback is low due to risk taking in the market and the ADP jobs report.  US ISM manufacturing figures are due out at 10AM EST and a decline is expected.  The ADP figure is the first of the 3 jobs reports due out this week, with initial jobless claims out tomorrow, and the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls report due out on Friday.

Yen (JPY):  The Yen is mostly lower this morning as risk appetite has encouraged yield seeking through carry trades.  However, the Yen is still showing strength against the Dollar, returning very close to the 15-year high put in last week.  It appears as though the market is going to test the resolve of the Japanese policy makers to see if intervention is really in the cards.

As is indicative this morning, it’s not always about the US economy.  While the numbers here look pretty bleak, there are pockets of strength around the globe.  Right now, the only thing keeping the Dollar afloat is risk aversion, and most of the “bad news” is from US self-inflicted wounds.

Yesterday’s Fed Minutes showed that further quantitative easing may be off the table for now, which the market views as a good thing.  As other economies around the globe work to slash deficits, adding to the US deficit would be seen as negative and could have had the opposite effect.

This week is important for the US economy as it’s all about jobs.  I can’t harp on this enough.  And this goes hand-in-hand with US government policies.  A report yesterday showed that banks have eased lending standards yet demand for new loans was weak.  This is all because of the uncertainty surrounding current policy and the likely affects of more regulation, taxes, and the healthcare overhaul.

Meanwhile those that can’t find work are left out to dry, with their only hope that more government cheese will keep them afloat.  If this isn’t a recipe for disaster, I don’t know what is.

To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!

To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here!  Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!

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