The Australian dollar fell against most of the major currencies on news that both retail sales and imports into Australia declined last month. The Australian dollar fell 0.4 percent to 96.41 U.S. cents as of 4:32 p.m. in Sydney from the close in New York. It reached 95.37 cents yesterday, the lowest since Sept. 24, before rallying 1 percent, the sharpest gain since Nov. 18.
Source: Bloomberg
The European Central Bank announced that it will leave the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 1 percent. It is also expected that the ECB will maintain its liquidity operations first implemented in May which to date, has resulted in the purchase of 67 billion euros (US$88 billion) in government securities.
Source: Reuters
In what could be a harbinger of things to come in Europe, Finland officially fell back into recession during the first quarter of the year. During the January to March time frame, Finland’s economy contracted by a seasonally-adjusted 0.4 percent after losing 0.2 percent in the final quarter of 2009.
Source: BBC News
News that Abu Dhabi had pledged $10 billion to help Dubai pay its debts, helped lift stock markets in Europe and Aisa on Monday. In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 50.05 points, or 1 percent, at 5,311.62 while Germany’s DAX rose 53.93 points, or 1 percent, to 5,811.97. The CAC-40 in France was 21.02 points, or 0.6 percent, higher at 3,824.74.
The advance is expected to continue when Wall Street opens — Dow futures were up 46 points, or 0.4 percent, at 10,469 while the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 futures rose 6.1 points, or 0.6 percent, at 1,109.30.
Associated Press
US Retail Sales, import prices, inventories and UOM sentiment all point to ‘normalization of US monetary policy’, whether the Fed or the administration like it or not! Even with rates on hold in the front end, a steeper yield curve reflects the ‘diminishing demand from investors anticipating faster economic growth and inflation’. The million dollar question is when do we implement ‘the’ exit strategy? Abu Dhabi has resuscitated global equities this morning, by giving a $10b life line to Dubai World to meet its immediate debt obligations. This will obviously help European Banks, who fear of further reprisals being bestowed upon them and giving once again temporary relief to the USD ‘bear’ this morning. The Tankan business sentiment amongst Japan’s largest manufacturers did not live up to Friday’s UOM headline. It advanced the least (-24 vs. -33) as companies have become more concerned that the JPY’s gains will erode future profits. This is the exact problem that the inexperienced Hatoyama’s Government is trying to overcome! Playing with the USD temporary strength by staying cautious seems a reasonable strategy at the moment.
The US$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 10 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘subdued, yet illiquid’ trading range.
Friday’s US data was the impetus for a wild ride in the currency markets. US Retail sales beat all analysts’ expectations. Many believe that the headline print (+1.3% vs. +0.6%) states that the US consumer is more resilient than we have been giving them credit for! However, digging deeper, the data may actually be telling a different story. Firstly and historically, most of the gain was due to gas station sales which as we all know can be rather volatile in nature. Secondly, the prospects for immediate ‘future’ growth remain somewhat suspect, as salaries and disposable incomes have been moderating. Before, personal incomes relied heavily on government incentives and benefits. Thirdly, and rather significantly, holiday shopping seems to have drifted to Nov. to take advantage of the deeper thanksgiving discounts. For this reason alone, it would not be surprising to see a weaker print this month! Let’s not be too negative on the release. Can the printed growth be sustainable? What ever way you want to analyze it, consumers seem to be much stronger ‘this’ holiday season than ‘last’. Breaking the numbers down, the headline sales jumped +1.3%, m/m, and coming in at a much stronger print than last year’s -2.6% decline. In addition, while gas stations sales soared +6.0%, m/m, accounting for much of the surprise in the headline, ex-gas sales, total sales were still up a healthy +0.8%. Core-sales (ex-motor vehicles), rose slightly less than headline sales at +1.2%, as motor vehicles increased a further +1.6%, m/m. The retails sales data was backed up by the UOM consumer sentiment index, which advanced for the first time in three months on Friday (+73.4 vs. +67.4). Confidence once again is on the upswing, probably due to the fact that job cuts may now be slowing down. Stronger improved sentiment is a catalyst for supporting US retail sales and this alone may enforce the sustainability as we head into the first quarter of 2010.
The USD$ is currently lower against the EUR +0.24%, CHF +0.26%, JPY +0.36% and higher against GBP -0.14%. The commodity currencies are slightly weaker this morning, CAD -0.12% and AUD -0.10%. On Friday, Canadian new home prices rose less than expected in Oct. (+0.3% vs. +0.5%), but still increased for a 4-consecutive month. Digging deeper, the gains were in the house-only component which feeds into the replacement component of CPI. On a year-over-year basis, new home prices are still in negative territory! The loonie had been rapped on the knuckles last week and sits in the same boat as other growth and commodity currencies. The CAD is currently trading at the bottom of its recent tight range and in danger of losing further support at the USD is threatening to end the year on a high note. Last week the BOC shot a warning shot across the bow of the Canadian consumer. They said that recent rallies in equities and bonds may not be justified, and ‘that rising debt levels of Canadian households will make them more vulnerable when interest rates rise’. Carney said that ‘households need to asses their ability to service these debt obligations over their entire maturity’. Despite the BOC extending its commitment to keep borrowing cost low until well into next year, variable mortgage rate holders should be wary of a hike in long term yields despite the BOC’ remaining on hold. Expect liquidity to become a concern across the board as we close in on the holiday season. Again investors continue to be a comfortable buyer of the greenback on pull backs.
AUD managed to pare some of the sessions earlier losses after the Dubai Government indicated that Abu Dhabi was preparing to bank roll $10b of working Capital to help Dubai World meet its debt obligations. The AUD came under renewed pressure earlier in the session on speculation that the Fed may be moving closer to increasing borrowing costs after both Friday’s retail sales and consumer confidence headlines exceeded expectations. Despite growth currencies get a shot in the arm, capital markets remains focused on the US yield story. For now and until proven otherwise investors continue to be better buyers on dips. When will we see parity, first half of next year? (0.9120) or do we expect US rates to change the whole landscape sooner than we think?
Crude is lower in the O/N session ($69.48 down -39c). On Friday, Crude plummeted for an 8th consecutive day (the longest stretch in 6-years), as the dollar advanced vs. most its major trading partners, temporarily curbing investor appetite for commodities. Technically we managed to break down a significant support level, the $70 barrier. Will we be able to maintain the bearish momentum? Prices have dropped -11% this month on the greenback’s strength and rising fuel inventories. In the bigger picture, if the USD continues its month end buying, expect speculators to shy away from commodities. Last weeks’ EIA report showed that inventories climbed after refiners boosted their operations and imports fell. Oil stocks declined -3.82m barrels to +336.1m million last week vs. the market expectations of a gain of +600k barrels. On the flip side, gas stocks climbed more than forecasted and supplies of distillate fuel (heating oil and diesel) advanced for the first time in a month. Technically the report was a zero-sum game. Gas inventories rose +2.25m barrels to +216.3m vs. an expected increase of +1.6m, while distillate fuel increased +1.62m barrels to +167.3m. Refineries operated at 81.1% of capacity, up +1.4% points from last week and now at the highest level in 2-months. Two reason contribute to this, firstly, refiners anticipate greater future demand and secondly, the need to reduce stock before the end of the year because of tax consideration. Overall it was a modestly bearish report. Fundamentals continue to promote demand destruction. Various OPEC members have been rather vocal of late ahead of their meeting at the end of the month. They believe that prices are in ‘the right range and there is no need to reduce inventories’. Expect the USD’s direction to dictate price action medium term. Cannot say it loud enough, but support levels continue to look vulnerable!
Friday’s bargain hunting appeared after gold futures had plummeted. Over the last five trading sessions the ‘yellow metal’ has managed to fall close to a $107 drop from this month’s highs. The recent record rally required a healthy ‘lemming purge’ which we have just witnessed. Sellers beware, despite the ‘mother in-law’ and anyone who can, does own this ‘hot’ commodity, these pull backs remain strong buying opportunities as it’s ‘the international currency’ ($1,124). There has been a big pickup in demand seen in US physical gold and silver products last week even as prices were tumbling!
The Nikkei closed at 10,105 down -2. The DAX index in Europe was at 5,816 +60; the FTSE (UK) currently is 5,314 up +53. The early call for the open of key US indices is higher. The US 10-year bond backed up 2bp on Friday (3.52%) and are little changed in the O/N session. Stronger US retail sales and consumer confidence data again pressurized the longer end of the yield curve. 10-year product broke significant support levels at 3.50% and technically yields are in danger of approaching the 3.70-75% level as investors ‘want’ to believe that the US economy has truly turned the corner. Last week we witnessed the 2’s-30 spread widen out to 374bp, the most in nearly three decades. A steeper yield curve reflects the ‘diminishing demand from investors anticipating faster economic growth and inflation’. Are investors beginning to have their fill of US debt? Two possible reasons for the lack of interest, duration extending and secondly, the possibility of higher future rates.
The dollar fell toady as Japan reported strong growth of 1.4 percent in the third quarter increasing investor demand for higher returns.
“The Fed has committed to low rates for a long time,” said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. “With the Fed out of the equation, good numbers provide the backdrop for further risk taking.”
The dollar briefly pared its decline versus the euro after the Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales excluding automobiles increased last month less than economists forecast. Sales advanced 0.2 percent after a 0.4 percent gain in September. The median forecast of 61 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for a 0.4 percent gain. Including autos, sales increased 1.4 percent following a 2.3 percent drop.
Bloomberg
The 16 countries using the euro emerged from recession with the recording of 0.4 percent growth for the quarter ending in September. While Germany and France – the two largest economies in the eurozone – have now seen two positive quarters, this is the first time since the recession began that the entire region experienced overall growth.
BBC News
For the first time since Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures were first recorded in 1955, Britain’s economy suffered its sixth consecutive quarter of declining growth, falling another 0.4 percent from July to September. Since the beginning of the recession, the economy has contracted a total of 5.9 percent.
BBC News
More Cbanks are laying the ground work for tighter monetary rate policies, Norway, Australia, New Zealand, UK and now perhaps China. China’s economic data released this week are consistent with a V-shaped recovery assumption. However, as recovery gains momentum, concerns over growth will naturally shift to worries about policy tightening. Many analysts are worried that US officials who are contemplating an exit strategy from this entire fiscal stimulus are in danger of repeating the Japanese mistakes and plunging their economy into ‘a lost decade’ of stagnant growth. In fact the administration needs to spend even more to assure sustainable recovery despite the record budget deficit of $1.5t and a spiraling greenback!
The US$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 12 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in another ‘whippy’ trading range.
Again US jobless claims disappoint. Initial jobless claims negatively beat expectations (+531k vs. +520k), and the shadow claims figures deteriorated yet again as the duration of unemployment continues to lengthen (average 26.5 weeks). To make matters worse, emergency claims (after continuing) jumped by +40.7k, w/w (+3.39m vs. +3.34m) and was partially offset by a drop of -16k in extended benefits (+464k vs. +481k) which follows emergency benefits. Cumulatively, that’s +10.4m Americans who are now on some form of jobless benefits, which include initial, continuing (+5.9m), emergency and extended. It’s worth noting that both the extended and emergency benefit claims were revised up from the previous week. Now that continuing has breached that psychological +6m level, perhaps we may have found our resistance point! Other data showed that US leading economic index rose for a 6th -straight month (+1% vs. +0.4%), implying that the economy is likely to expand in the New Year.
The USD$ is currently higher against the EUR -0.17%, CHF -0.22%, JPY -0.51% and lower against GBP +0.6%. The commodity currencies are mixed this morning, CAD -0.32% and AUD -0.01%. Yesterday’s Canadian sales headline was higher than expected (+0.8% vs. +0.4%), but the scope of the sales gain was narrowly concentrated. Ex-autos and gas (+0.5% vs. +0.6%), the print was flat m/m. Governor Carney does not have to worry, we are neither expanding nor contracting, we are at an equilibrium. Not surprisingly, we still witness excess inventories that should constrain a production recovery and a lack of business investment on excess capacity are significant offsets to stronger housing and consumer sector performances. Digging deeper, autos (especially light trucks +3.9%) and gas prices accounted for all of the strength in Aug. Thus, ex-autos and gas and we are flat! The BOC MPR was moderately positive for the loonie. With commodities on solid ground and risk appetite alive should favor the CAD in the near term, despite the BOC stepping up its dovish rhetoric this week. The market wants parity, we don’t need parity, but the market will want to test the loonies’ highs again. Futures have priced in a 62% that we will have reached parity by year end.
The RBA keeps providing the ammo to lift the AUD towards parity. They said it was ‘possibly imprudent’ to keep borrowing costs at a 50-year low in the minutes of its October meeting, this week. This has led the currency to its 3rd consecutive winning week. Mix in a little bit of advancing Asian bourses and we have a ‘hot’ currency in demand on pullbacks (0.9260).
Crude is higher in the O/N session ($81.50 +31c). Crude fell from its one-year high yesterday as the dollar advanced, thus diminishing the appeal of commodities to investors. Mind you, the weaker unemployment claims report helped it on its merry way. Oil prices had temporarily managed to do a u-turn and rise after this weeks EIA report showed a bigger than forecasted decline in supplies of gas. Gas inventories fell -2.2m barrels to +207m last week vs. an expected drop of only -850k. On the flip side crude stocks rose +1.3m barrels to +339.1m vs. the forecasted climb of +1.5m barrels. OPEC Secretary-General El-Badri said that ‘prices above $80 would hamper economic growth’! Technically, prices have been aggressively mobile on pure ‘speculation’. Year-to-date crude has advanced +11%, the inventory report is not bearish and can only give speculators ammo to keep prices elevated. Fundamentals do not support those actions, only when floating storage is eliminated then demand destruction will end. However, with the USD falling to its 14-year lows, the black-stuff looks undervalued!
Yesterday, the ‘yellow metal’ fell the most in a week as a resurging greenback eroded the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. However, expect the commodity to remain well supported on deeper pullbacks as long term inflation worries continue to be a concern ($1,062).
The Nikkei closed at 10,282 up +16. The DAX index in Europe was at 5,762 up +62; the FTSE (UK) currently is 5,173 down -44. The early call for the open of key US indices is higher. The 10-year bonds backed up 3bp yesterday (3.42%) and another 5bp (3.47%) in the O/N session. Rally over! Dealers managed to pressurize bond prices with the announcement of a record $123b worth of US debt to be auctioned off next week. A strong leading index print convinced traders to sell even more product. However, looking at the big picture, Treasury buybacks are almost over. MBS buybacks have about $250b to go. The US Treasury still has to raise $1.8t per year (more pressure on the curve). Analysts foresee 4% 10-yr notes before the year-end and 4.5% by middle of next year!
Statistics Canada reported today that Retail Sales rose by 0.8 percent in August to $34.5 billion (USD$32.9 billion) due largely to an increase in gasoline prices and new car sales. Without gasoline and car sales included in the total, retail sales would have registered only a 0.4 percent increase.
Yahoo News
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