Forex Blog

February 6, 2012

Market Outlook for February 6, 2012

Recap of the Latest Global News
By Cory Vi & Andrew Su on Feb 6, 2012

Markets rallied on Friday after the release of much better than expected US employment data. The non-farm payrolls data showed an increase of 243,000 in January which was well over the median economist’s forecast of 140,000. Furthermore, the unemployment rate dropped to a three year low at 8.3%. Market analysts, who were extremely bearish at the beginning of the year are now making grand announcements such as ‘the stars are aligning’ to push markets higher. The contrarian in us is now extremely cautious and we expect the USD to make a comeback after losing ground last week as the better than expected data has seen the likelihood of further quantitative easing fall. The EURO has retraced lower during the European trading session to as low as 1.3030 after opening in Asia above 1.3115.

In more sobering news, the situation is coming to a head in Greece with the government there expected to respond to the troika and demands by its international creditors for increasingly severe austerity measures within the next couple of days. It has become apparent that Greece is finding it difficult to come to an agreement with its creditors. The IMF has said that a worsening debt crisis in Europe could cut China’s growth in half. In China, Chinese Lunar New Year sales grew at the slowest pace since the 2009 financial crisis and a full 3% lower than last year at 16%. There are increasing signs of slowing consumer spending in China which does not bode well for the increasing numbers of foreign retailers rushing into the Chinese market. The Australian dollar has eased off highs at 1.0796 on Friday to fall more than a cent to as low as 1.0685 today.

US equity markets rose to their fifth weekly gain last week after the release of the much better than expected US employment data. The Dow Jones is now trading at its highest levels since May 2008 as financial and technology companies gained more than 3%. The S&P 500 closed 1.45% higher at 1,344. Stocks in Asia were largely higher while the continuing Greek tragedy has seen European bourses trading down about 0.5%.

February 1, 2012

Market Outlook for February 1, 2012

Filed under: Forex News — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 6:42 am

Recap of the Latest Global News
By Cory Vi & Andrew Su on Feb 1, 2012

Yet again markets were gripped by ‘europhoria’ surrounding the latest EU summit and more announcements surrounding plans to save Europe. European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have agreed on a fiscal treaty that will allow for action against high deficit states and calls for members to introduce legislation to limit budget deficits. Markets rallied on the news even though these reforms actually do nothing to resolve the current debt crisis. Britain and the Czech Republic have declined to sign the pact. After having rallied to above 1.3200 yesterday, the Euro gains evaporated before once again rising in Europe today.

The Dollar Index rose yesterday by 0.2% yesterday as the USD gained across the majors. USDJPY continues to hover dangerously close to post war lows but is still managing to hold above 76.00. The inevitable sabre rattling and war cries from the Bank of Japan will intensify over the next few trading sessions but the question will be is “anyone listening and does anyone care?” In Europe, the dollar is falling as equity markets rise.

Yesterday, equity markets were soft. The S&P 500 closed 0.05% lower for its fourth consecutive loss, albeit small, as economic data failed to meet expectations. Consumer confidence came in lower than expected while the ISM business activity index came in lower than even the most pessimistic forecasts. Exxon Mobil fell more than 2% after reported sales trailed estimates and Amazon will open significantly lower today after profits fell more than 50%. European bourses are higher by almost 2% as manufacturing data from the US to China looks positive.

Equity markets have recovered from a soft start to the week with Asian shares rising on optimism surrounding the latest EU summit. After falling yesterday over Greek resistance to outside influence in its budgetary affairs, rising bond yields and the collapse of Spanair, European bourses are now higher by 1% mid session today. After losing ground yesterday for the third day as European leaders lectured to Greece over the nation’s second rescue package, S&P 500 futures are signalling a rise in trade today.

January 27, 2012

Market Outlook for January 27, 2012

Recap of the Latest Global News
By Cory Vi & Andrew Su on Jan 27, 2012

In a week that the Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates low through till at least 2014 and Bernanke said that policymakers are considering further bond purchases to boost growth, markets continued to celebrate as it appears that more free money is about to be pumped into the financial system. Treasury yields dropped to an all time record low as PIMCO’s Bill Gross predicted a third, fourth and fifth round of quantitative easing. The USD has, not surprisingly, taken a pounding over the week as the QE junkies got the fix they had all prayed for. The EUR is trading higher at above 1.3150.

The surprise news by the Federal Reserve had markets reprice the likelihood of further quantitative easing and sparked a flurry of activity by investors to revalue assets. In our opinion, the reaction in the markets has been overdone and we will likely see a retracement of the USD move in the coming sessions. The impact on riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar has seen it rally to as high as 1.0665 in trade today.

US equities fell yesterday after the Dow Jones rose to its highest levels since May 2008 during the day. Financial stocks where hit by worse than expected new homes sales data which showed a fall in December, for the first time in 4 months. US jobless claims rose while orders for durable goods rose more than expected. Asian stocks closed marginally higher while European stocks are soft as the Greek debt swap negotiations continue.

January 24, 2012

Market Outlook for January 24, 2012

Filed under: Forex News — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 8:37 am

Recap of the Latest Global News
By Cory Vi & Andrew Su on Jan 24, 2012

The EUR staged a rally yesterday as European finance ministers met in Brussels to discuss new budget rules and the Greek debt swap plan. In a familiar pattern, Europhoria seems to grip the markets every time officials meet to discuss the debt crisis and the EUR rallies. Our expectation that history would repeat itself and the EUR would once again fall after the optimism surrounding the meetings dissipates is eventuating. The region’s finance ministers have failed to agree on the Greek debt swap deal and are calling on a greater contribution from debt holders. The EUR has fallen from a high of 1.3065 during the Asian session to as low as 1.2988 during the European morning.

Germany has proposed the idea of combining the temporary and permanent rescue funds in an effort to reinforce the funds and boost resources to them. Meanwhile, a move by European finance ministers to provide greater debt relief to Greece by calling on investors to accept a lower interest rate on exchanged bonds is setting up a possible fiery situation at the next EU Summit on January 30. All the event risk in the markets has finally caught up with the riskier currencies with the Australian dollar falling more than a cent from yesterday.

Equity markets in the US closed flat yesterday as investors took time to evaluate the reasons for three consecutive weekly rises in stocks and caution still surrounds the debt crisis in Europe. The S&P 500′s 14 day relative strength index has stayed above 65 since mid January and recording its strongest run in almost a year. Asian markets were largely subdued with many closed for Chinese New Year celebrations. The Nikkei closed 0.22% higher while the ASX 200 closed flat. European bourses have lost 1% mid session as negotiations over the Greek debt swap deal stall.

Commodities News

November 19, 2009

Stock Futures Down, Risk Off the Table!

As of this writing (9:15am EST), the US stock market futures are down considerably pre-market, prompting the flight to safety trade.  Therefore, Japanese yen (JPY) and US dollar (USD) are up the most from the overnight session, with Yen vs. the Aussie (AUD) +1.6% and Yen vs. the Kiwi (NZD) +2.45%.

Also to note is then yen strength is pushing closer to  yearly highs vs. USD currently at 88.73.  This is a combination of dollar weakness (thanks Ben!) and stalled economic growth.

Also to note is that the Canadian dollar (CAD) is off this morning, following crude oil’s decline.

And lastly, the bullish triangle pattern in GBP/JPY mentioned yesterday had now confirmed that the pattern has failed.  No longs to be initiated.

This day feels like it could be a long one for stock market bulls, riding on the heels of Obama’s comments yesterday that the US risks slipping back into double dip recession.  If you remember back to March about his comments about “a good time to buy stocks”, then you just may want to heed his advice.

To learn more about how correlations in the markets work, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!

Tags: AUD, Aussie, cad, comments, course, currenc, currency, currency trading, dollar, dow, economic, fx, fxedu, gbp, Il, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, Mike Conlon, nzd, oil, recession, ssi, stock, stocks, time, trade, USD, Yen

September 23, 2009

See What I Mean?

It looks like the FED did as was expected and the market was kind enough to follow suit, by selling the dollar and buying up other currencies.  But see what I mean about the volatility!  Take a look at this 5-minute chart of EUR/USD. (click chart to enlarge) Over 60 pips in less than a few minutes!

eursep23.JPG

Hopefully readers you took my advice and sold USD bought other currencies, or steered clear of the mayhem all together!

Want to learn how to spot forex trading opportunities based on the fundamentals?  Click Here.

Want to get set up with a real-time practice forex trading account?  Click Here.

none

Powered by Efacilitators Hosting