Chief-economist | Forex Blog

July 29, 2010

US Jobless Claims Fall by 11,000

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: a-little-bit, central-banks, chief-economist, connecticut, forex round up, high-against, pierpont, report, said-stop-loss, sustainability, the-recovery, though-people, triggered-above, usd, week — admin @ 1:04 pm

The number of new claims for jobless benefits for the week ended July 24th, fell by 11,000 from the week before to 457,000 new claims. Overall however, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits increased raising concerns that job growth in the US is slowing.

“It does feel like there’s been a little bit of a deceleration in the pace of hiring,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said before the report. “It relates to a lot of fear and uncertainty around the sustainability of the recovery.”

Source: Bloomberg

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June 16, 2010

US Housing Starts Fall More Than Expected

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: builders-will, capacity-rates-, chief-economist, daiwa-capital, housing, housing-market, housing-starts, largest, markets, percent-from, remainder, usd, with-the-tax — admin @ 1:16 pm

The number of housing starts in the US fell by 10 percent in May to an annual rate of 593,000 new units. This is the largest single-month decline since March 2009, missing the target of 659,000 by 66,000 units.

In order to qualify for tax credits, contracts for new construction must have been signed by the end of April and closed by the end of June. The ending of the tax credit will likely lead to fewer new sales for the remainder of the year.

“With the tax credit expiring and sales slowing down, builders will ease up on starts,” Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc. in New York, said before the report. “I see the housing market staying neutral for a time, moving sideways rather than being a source of growth.”

Source: Bloomberg

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June 4, 2010

US Employment Rises 431,000 But Most Temporary Positions

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: a-closer-look, a-slower-pace, chief-economist, economy, forex round up, generate-job, marks-the-fifth, really-aren, report, said-before, sales-clearly, the-report- — admin @ 12:46 pm

The Non-Farm Payroll employment report for May shows an increase of 431,000 new hires for the month. This was fewer than the 536,000 predicted and a closer look reveals that of the 431,000 new positions, 411,000 were temporary positions created to conduct the 2010 US census.
Private payroll also rose, but at a slower pace than expected with only 41,000 new positions created.

“It’s going to be a long haul,” Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado, said before the report. “We really aren’t adding many jobs. We’ve lost some momentum in the economy and final sales clearly aren’t enough to generate job growth.”

Source: Reuters

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May 6, 2010

Moody’s Warns Debt Contagion Threatens Euro

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: attract-buyers-, cad, chief-economist, currencies, debt-contagion, eur, european-union, integrity, italy, portugal, pressure-on-the, risk-appetite, within-the-euro — admin @ 6:59 am

The Moody’s ratings agency said today that the threat of debt contagion arising from the Greek debt crisis could spill over into other countries within the European Union. Contagion is likely as investors feel countries including the UK, Ireland, Italy, Spain, and Portugal in particular, will be forced to increase bond yields in the future in order to attract buyers. For this reason, buyers will demand higher yields now to offset the expectation that yields will be higher later.

There is also growing pressure on the European Central Bank to deal with a rapidly depreciating euro that has hit year-long lows against the dollar, falling below $1.28 yesterday.

Peter Westaway, European chief economist at Nomura International, said that the ECB faced a “really important meeting”.

“This crisis is not just about Greece. it’s about the integrity of the euro as a whole,” Westaway told the BBC.

Source: BBC News

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February 5, 2010

Global Stock Prices Decline as Debt Worries Grow

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: causing-further, chief-economist, china, concerns, concerns-both, europe, friday, not-believable-, press, reaffirmed-his, spain, the-discussion, vulnerable — admin @ 5:21 am

Global stock prices continued their downward descent on Friday on fears that the debt crisis in Greece will soon spread to other vulnerable countries including Spain and Portugal. In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 82.34 points, or 1.6 percent, at 5,056.97, while Germany’s DAX fell 69.61 points, or 1.3 percent, to 5,463.63. The CAC-40 in France was 76.60 points, or 2.1 percent, lower at 3,612.65.

Asian stock markets also struggled; Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 sank 2.9 percent, or 298.89 points, to 10,057.09, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.9 percent, or 55.91, to 2,939.40. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng buckled 3.3 percent to 19,665.08.

“It has been a worry for Greece for weeks but it is now spreading like wildfire, driving equity markets lower, causing further concerns both about medium-term growth prospects and in currency markets,” said Kit Juckes, chief economist at ECU Group.

Source: Associated Press

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January 21, 2010

China Reports 8.7% Growth in 2009

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: america, chief-economist, goldman-sachs, government, labor, labor-department, last-week, more-important, number, radio, yahoo-news — admin @ 6:40 am

China reported growth of 8.7 percent in 2009 and is now on course to overtake Japan as the world’s second-largest economy behind the US. Official gave credit to the government’s economic stimulus plan for helping China manage the financial crisis.

Jim O’Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, noted in a BBC Radio interview that in “November 2008, they [the Chinese government] came up with a quick, aggressive fiscal and monetary response which has worked. They have replaced exports with domestic demand, both consumption and investment… China has become more important as America [has become] less, which is what the world needs.”

BBC News

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Obama to Limit Size, Risks of Banks

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: a-will-make, america, building-on-his, chief-economist, electoral-loss, his-clampdown, last-week, limit-the-size, official-said, still-standing — admin @ 6:38 am

President Barack Obama, eager to harness and redirect voter anger over bank bailouts, is ramping up his clampdown on Wall Street.

Building on his own proposals and the work of the House, the president wants new federal government powers to limit the size and complexity of large financial institutions and to limit their ability to engage in high-risk trades.

Obama will make the announcement Thursday, a senior administration official said, in a bipartisan display aimed at capitalizing on the one issue in his agenda still standing after a devastating Democratic electoral loss in Massachusetts.

source: Globe and Mail

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December 17, 2009

Irish Republic Emerges From Recession

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: a-debt-load, chief-economist, crisis-however, ireland, irish-republic, leading-economy, new-jobless, ranking-amongst, remain-cautious, unexpected-480, with-the-global — admin @ 7:29 am

A few short years ago, the Irish Republic was the leading economy in Europe and was dubbed the “Celtic Tiger“. All that changed with the global credit crisis however, propelling Ireland into a long and painful recession culminating with a debt load ranking amongst the highest debtor nations in Europe at 12 percent of GDP.

For the third quarter ending in September, Ireland managed to finally break the cycle of declines by posting a modest growth of 0.3 percent. Unfortunately, most analysts are warning that continued growth is not a sure thing as noted by Eoin Fahy, chief economist at KBC Asset Management, said:

“The process is still very volatile. Clearly we shouldn’t overstate. It is a good news that GDP is growing rather than falling, but we still have to remain cautious because of the volatility.”

BBC News

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November 20, 2009

US Housing Crisis Not Over: Moody’s

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: analyst-with, available-homes, chief-economist, confidence-came, for-homebuyers, forex round up, homebuilding, horton-inc-, housing, median, usd — admin @ 10:01 am

An analyst with Moody’s said today that the US housing crisis is not over and will continue well into 2010.

“I don’t think the housing crisis is over,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Economy.com. “I think we’re going to see another leg down.”

An index measuring November homebuilder confidence came in lower than the median forecast of 45 economists this week. The Commerce Department on Nov. 18 said residential building dropped 11 percent in October to the lowest level since April’s all-time bottom.

“Market conditions in the homebuilding industry are still challenging, characterized by rising foreclosures, high inventory levels of available homes, increasing unemployment, tight credit for homebuyers and weak consumer confidence,” said Donald R. Horton, chairman of D.R. Horton Inc., the nation’s second-largest homebuilder. The company today reported a fourth-quarter loss of $231.9 million on $1 billion in sales, missing analysts’ estimates.

Bloomberg

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