Figure | Forex Blog

January 26, 2012

EUR/USD Classical Technical Report

Filed under: Forex News — Tags: already-been, although-the, before-the-next, chart of the day, figure, resistance-has, towards-the-100, trend-remains, week-further, well-supported — admin @ 8:42 am

EUR/USD: The market has finally managed to find some bids and although the broader underlying trend remains intensely bearish, the risks from here are for additional corrective gains back towards the 100-Day SMA in the 1.3400 area before the next lower top carves out. Some falling trend-line resistance has already been broken on the daily chart and the 10-Day SMA has now crossed back above the 20-Day SMA to provide added confirmation for short-term bullish structural shift. Setbacks should now be well supported ahead of 1.2800, while only a daily close back under this figure would negate short-term bull bias. A bullish reversal week further supports short-term constructive outlook.

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March 31, 2010

ADP Report Shows US Payrolls Still on Decline

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: and-construction, better-weather, economic-growth, federal, figure, figure-differs, forex round up, labor-markets, monthly-increases, with-manufacturing — admin @ 6:54 am

Private payroll services company ADP, released its monthly unemployment report which showed that companies in the US reduced payrolls by 23,000 in March. This figure differs wildly from a survey of economists who suggest that this Friday’s government employment report will show payrolls increased by 184,000.

The reason for this optimism could be short-lived however as temporary hiring by the federal government to conduct the 2010 census will boost employment levels. Analysts also point out that better weather in March, compared to the stormy February, will add to the ranks of outside and seasonal workers.

“Just because things are getting better tomorrow doesn’t mean that things are good today,” Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, said before the report. “Weak labor markets remain the single- biggest risk to economic growth for the coming years.”

Source: Bloomberg

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January 8, 2010

Non-Farm Payrolls Disappoint!

Filed under: Forex News — Tags: a-net-loss, currency, figure, forextrading, fxedu, gained-or-lost, interest, interest-rate, mike conlon, other, pip, usd, volatility — admin @ 7:25 am

The US Non-Farm Payrolls Report (NFP) is usually one of the biggest market moving numbers in the currency markets. Today’s number is no exception. The report came in for December at -85K, a very disappointing figure. Estimates were expecting this number to be flat, that we neither gained or lost jobs for the month. Although I had seen some pretty wild numbers tossed around, anywhere from +/- 200K. The revisions for the prior two months showed a net loss of 1K jobs, a negligible but encouraging figure.

So what does this all mean? Well in a word: trouble.

The US economy is not adding jobs nearly as quickly as the government had hoped. With all of the enormous amounts of stimulus spending, we have little to show for it. As a result of this figure, the US dollar reversed course and immediately began to weaken. If anyone had any delusions about a US rate hike in the first quarter of the year, they can pretty much forget about it as its now off of the table. Unless the dollar tanks so badly that Bernanke HAS to do something.

My guess is that we’re going to be looking at Japan 2.0 here in the US, our own version of their “lost decade”.

Just to illustrate the volatility that can occur around this figure, take a look at this chart of EUR/USD: (click chart to enlarge)

Close to 100 pips in a few minutes!

This could make an interesting year for the US dollar. There are 2 basic ways that we will see dollar strength this year; either through interest rate hikes or risk aversion plays. So while this logic may be a bit counter-intuitive to some, it’s going to be very important to take our clues from the other markets to see which theme is playing out.

And of course don’t forget that the dollar can continue to weaken well into this year, the question is going to be that if things don’t get better on the employment front, at what point does that filter through to the other markets?

Only time will tell.

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Tags: Bernanke, blog, cad, course, currenc, currency, currency market, dollar, economy, EUR, eurusd, forex, forex trading, forextrading, fx, fxedu, Il, interest, interest rate, Japan, Mike Conlon, minutes, nfp, payrolls, pip, pips, time, USD

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