Forex Blog

May 15, 2012

Germany Is Holding Up The Euro Zone Economy

Germany helped the euro zone avoid its second recession in three years, as growth in the region’s largest economy offset contraction in other euro zone member countries.

German gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2011, when it fell 0.2 percent. Growth was mainly driven by net trade, as exports rose and domestic consumption increased, while investment declined.

In the meantime, according to a report published by the European Union’s statistics office, GDP in the 17-nation euro area stagnated in the latest quarter compared with the prior three months as a result of the continuing debt crisis.

Eight euro zone nations are already in a recession, commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. Italy’s economy shrank 0.8 percent in the quarter, while the Netherlands saw a decline of a 0.2 percent, and Portugal decreased by 0.1 percent. France, the region’s second-biggest economy, avoided contraction, recording zero growth in the first quarter.

In Eastern Europe, Hungary is heading towards a recession. The Hungarian economy contracted 1.3 percent from the previous three months after stagnating in the fourth quarter of 2011. Czech GDP shrank 1 percent, which indicates the third consecutive quarter of contraction, and Romania recorded the second quarter of decline with a 0.1 percent drop.

The economies of Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands are all projected to shrink in 2012, with Spain the only euro member seen remaining in contraction into 2013.

An escalation of the sovereign-debt crisis is the biggest risk to the euro zone outlook, according to the European Commission. The region’s GDP will probably drop 0.3 percent this year before increasing 1 percent in 2013.

Source: Bloomberg

May 9, 2012

New Greek poll looms

Greece moved closer to a second snap election on Wednesday when the head of the biggest party launched a new attack on radical leftist Alexis Tsipras, saying his plans for a new government would push the country out of the euro zone.

New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras said in a televised statement that he hoped Tsipras would “come to his senses” before they met for coalition talks later on Wednesday.

Tsipras, riding a wave of public disgust with economic hardship in last Sunday’s election, has demanded that Samaras and socialist PASOK leader Evangelos Venizelos tear up their 130-billion euro bailout deal with the EU and IMF.

Samaras said this would be “a certain and immediate disaster”.

Tsipras, whose Left Coalition SYRIZA came second in the election, received a three-day mandate on Tuesday after Samaras gave up after only a few hours.

He was due to meet both Venizelos and Samaras later on Wednesday but there seems virtually no chance of agreement on a workable coalition to end Greece’s post-election limbo.

Reuters

May 6, 2012

Germany urges Hollande to Soften Anti-Austerity Drive

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: , , , , , , , — admin @ 1:29 pm

Greek main parties ‘suffer big losses’

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: , , , , , , , , — admin @ 1:19 pm

Early results in Greece’s parliamentary election suggest the two main parties have suffered dramatic losses.

With 11% of the vote counted, centre-right New Democracy is in the lead with 22%, down from 33.5% in 2009.

Centre-left Pasok is in second place with 16%, down from 43.9% in the last elections. Syriza, a left-wing coalition, is in third place with 15%.

Pasok and New Democracy, in coalition since last November, were expected to lose support to anti-austerity parties.

There is widespread anger across Greece to harsh measures imposed by the government in return for international bailouts.

Earlier, exit polls put Syriza – which opposes the government’s austerity measures – in second place, narrowly ahead of Pasok.

BBC

May 2, 2012

Euro Zone Unemployment at Its Highest Since 1997

Euro zone unemployment rose to the highest in almost 15 years and manufacturing contracted for a ninth month.

According to the European Union’s statistics office, the unemployment rate in the 17-nation area sharing the euro increased to 10.9 percent in March from 10.8 percent in February. This is the highest level since 1997. The number of people out of work in the region reached a record high of 17.4 million in March.

Markit Economics reported that the manufacturing gauge in the region fell to 45.9 in April from 47.7 in March, indicating further that the euro zone economy continues to weaken.

A recent survey of economists showed that the European Central Bank is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate at 1 percent, in order to stimulate growth in the region.

In the 27-nation European Union, the unemployment rate was 10.2 percent in March, unchanged from the previous month and up from 9.4 percent in March last year.

Spain had the region’s highest unemployment rate in March, at 24.4 percent, Greece came in second with 21.7 percent. The lowest jobless rates were in Austria and the Netherlands, at 4 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

Source: Bloomberg

April 30, 2012

Loonie 6-Month Lead at Risk

The Canadian dollar’s reign as the best-performing major currency over the past six months is in jeopardy as rising consumer debt loads collide with plans by Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney to increase interest rates.

While international investors typically favor currencies with high rates for the potential for greater returns, traders are signaling that in Canada it would do little more than damage an economy underpinned by debt. Household borrowing was 152.9 percent of disposable income at the end of last year, climbing from about 135 percent in 2007 and exceeding the U.S.’s 145 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“So much of Canadian growth is led by domestic demand and that domestic demand is led by consumer spending and consumer spending is linked to expanded leverage,” Shahab Jalinoos, a senior currency strategist in Stamford Connecticut at UBS AG, said in an interview April 24.

Strategists predict the currency will depreciate to parity with the U.S. dollar by March even as Carney reiterated last week that increasing rates may be “appropriate” as the economy moves closer to full recovery. Options traders are paying the highest premiums since January for protection against the so- called loonie weakening amid forecasts for higher volatility, which tends to dim the appeal of currencies. UBS sees it falling to C$1.05 per U.S. dollar by year-end from 98.01 cents.

Bloomberg

Spain is Back in Recession

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: , , , , , , , — admin @ 4:14 am

The Spanish economy entered its second recession since 2009. According to the National Statistics Institute, the country’s economy shrank 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2012, which is less than previously forecast, making this the second consecutive quarter of contraction. Compared to the previous year, the gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.4 percent.

Spain’s government is struggling to reach its target of reducing the budget deficit by 3.2 percentage points of GDP this year as the economy shrinks and unemployment increases to almost 25 percent. The government forecasts an economic contraction of 1.7 percent in 2012 and an expansion of 0.2 percent in 2013, that will leave the unemployment rate at about 24 percent.

Concerns over the weakness of the economy and the budget deficit level have driven Spain’s borrowing cost up, raising fears that the country will need a bailout. In the meantime, foreign investors are losing confidence and reducing their Spanish debt exposure.

Non-resident holdings of Spanish bonds fell to 220 billion euros in March from 245 billion euros the previous month, data on the Treasury’s website showed today. At the same time, Spanish banks increased their holdings to 171 billion euros from 142 billion euros.

Some analysts expect that Spain’s recession will almost certainly deepen in the coming quarters, pushing unemployment to even more dramatic highs.

Source: Bloomberg

April 27, 2012

Spain’s Unemployment Hits a New Record

Spanish unemployment has hit a new record high. According to the national statistics agency, the unemployment rate reached 24.4 percent at the end of March, with a record 5.64 million people being unemployed. Just in the first three months of the year, 365,900 people lost their jobs in Spain.

Spain has the highest unemployment rate in the European Union and it is expected to rise further this year. Other figures released today showed that Spanish retail sales were down 3.7 percent in March from the same point a year ago, the 21st month in row sales have fallen.

The Bank of Spain said earlier this week that the country’s economy contracted by 0.4 percent in first three months of this year, after shrinking by 0.3 percent in the final quarter of last year. Official GDP figures to be released on Monday are expected to confirm that Spain has fallen back into recession.

Yesterday, the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) cut Spain’s rating by two notches to BBB+, warning that the country might have to take on more debt to support its banking sector. S&P predicts the Spanish economy will shrink by 1.5 percent this year, having previously forecast 0.3 percent growth.

Source: BBC

April 26, 2012

US Weekly Claims Top Forecast

More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign that the labor market is taking time to improve.

Jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 388,000 in the week ended April 21 from a revised 389,000 the prior period that was the highest since early January, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a drop to 375,000.

Fewer layoffs are needed to lay the groundwork for more hiring, which in turn should support consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy. Federal Reserve policy makers yesterday said that while labor-market conditions have improved, the unemployment rate “remains elevated,” helping explain why they stuck to a plan to hold borrowing costs close to zero through 2014.

Bloomberg

April 20, 2012

Copper Traders Turn Optimistic

Demand for copper has increased recently as economies have been recovering. Barclays Capital has forecast a likely shortfall of supply. This is despite the fact that China has recently been growing at a slightly slower pace. Based on Barclays data, the usage of copper is China (40%), North America (11%), and Japan (5%). For the first time in a year, the IMF has raised their forecast for global growth potential.

This demand has been exacerbated by the recent positive German business confidence numbers. However, Goldman Sachs has predicted that China is likely to tap local reserves in the near future and thus decrease imports, which should place downward pressure on copper prices. As well, bourse data shows that supply may also be limited by inventory ownership.

Source: Bloomberg

« Newer PostsOlder Posts »

Powered by Efacilitators Hosting