Forex Blog

September 25, 2009

All About Yen!

Another strong day for the yen today, up against all of the currency pairs commonly followed.    Its particularly strong against GBP (+2.07), as I’ve noted over the last couple days the problems facing the Sterling.   So while GBP and USD get all of the attention with their QE (quantitative easing) programs, the Yen just quietly chugs along.

A few factors helping the yen:

1) Speculation that Japanes companies (exporters) are repatriating their funds (profits).  This is a seasonal factor that is supporting the yen right now.

2) From Bloomberg: “Japan’s Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii reiterated his opposition to intervention in foreign-exchange markets to curb the yen’s gains yesterday. The yen has added 3 percent versus the dollar this month.”  One of the biggest fears of yen traders is BOJ intervention, so this bodes well for the yen… for now.

3) The yen is being replaced in the “carry trade” as traders are now substituting USD as the vehicle of choice.

Overall, Japan hasn’t been affected as badly as the US and UK in the credit crisis, so look for JPY to benefit from the safe harbor trade.

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September 24, 2009

Tough Start for GBP!

Sometimes in trading you just have to stick with your initial “gut” feeling.  Yesterday I wrote in an article below, “Sound As A Pound…. For Now” that I thought the long-term outlook for GBP was negative but that it would probably take a while for the market to catch on before the serious selling would begin.

Apparently not.  And I highly doubt its because the market reads this blog, though one never knows! LOL

Anyway, GBP is getting slaughtered this morning, with GBP/JPY (-2.30%), GBP/USD (-1.92%), EUR/GBP (+1.64%), and GBP/CHF (-1.73%).

While I initially thought that GBP would remain positive vs. USD, it appears that they may be playing “catch-up” or “catch down” as it were to USD in the Quantitative easing department.

Any way you slice it, it looks like the GBP selling has begun and it could be a while for it to recover.

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