Forex Blog

January 12, 2012

US Jobless Claims Rise More than Expected

New claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected during the first week of January climbing by 24,000 to 399,000 for the week. Projections called for 375,000 new applications.

While the surge makes it clear that the U.S. labor market remains volatile, January is typically slower and leads to an increase in layoffs as temporary workers hired for the busy holiday season are no longer needed.

“There is usually a surge in seasonal layoffs at this time, and that is what’s happening here,” said Jonathan Basile, a senior economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “Claims have shown an improving trend. It’s a vote of confidence for continued improvement in the labor market.”

Source: Bloomberg

December 8, 2011

U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims Fall to 9 Month Low

The number of new applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending December 3rd fell by 38,000 from the previous week to 381,000. This represents a nine-month low and beat forecasts of 395,000 new claims.

“The labor market is improving,” said Brian Jones, a senior U.S. economist at Societe Generale in New York. “The numbers are moving in the right direction. You have to be careful because we’re around the Thanksgiving holiday and the Department of Labor has a hard time adjusting around floating holidays.”

Source: Bloomberg

December 2, 2011

U.S. Adds 120k Jobs – Unemployment Rate Falls to 8.6%

The U.S. economy added 120,000 jobs during the month of November as the unemployment rate fell to a two and a half year low of 8.6 percent. The news was well-received by the markets and provides further evidence that the economy is improving.

“The labor market is gradually healing. It’s a glacial pace, but we are taking small steps in the right direction,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics.

The relative strength of the report was also bolstered by revisions to the employment counts for September and October to show 72,000 more jobs created than previously reported.

Source: Reuters

November 2, 2011

U.S. Private Sector Creates 110k Jobs in September

The ADP National Employment Report indicates that the U.S, private sector added 110,000 jobs in September to beat expectations. The report also revised total job gains for the month to a total increase of 116,000 from the previously reported 91,000.

“It is not a huge amount better, but the fact that it was better than expected and there was a revision in the last month’s number is a pretty encouraging sign,” said Peter Jankovskis, co-chief investment officer at Oakbrook Investments LLC in Lisle, Illinois.

The ADP figures come ahead of the government’s much more comprehensive labor market report on Friday, which includes both public and private sector employment.

Source: Reuters

July 21, 2011

US Jobless Claims Higher Than Expected

The U.S. labor market continues to struggle with the summer doldrums as more people than expected filed for unemployment benefits last week. Initial claims increased by 10,000 over the previous week to a seasonally adjusted 418,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

“We’re just stuck in this trend between 410,000 and 430,000. Generally we’re just really not seeing any improvement but also not much worsening,” said Jeffrey Greenberg, an economist with Nomura Securities in New York.

Source: Reuters

April 13, 2011

US March Retail Sales Up 0.4%

U.S. retail sales rose for the ninth straight month in March climbing another 0.4 percent in addition to the 1.1 percent gain in February. The sales increases are attributed to a growing consumer confidence driven by the improving employment outlook.

“The consumer was more resilient in March than some of our concerns,” said John Herrmann, a senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Global Markets LLC in Boston. “Improving labor- market conditions are helping support consumption. This is a very impressive pace of spending, with gains across a diverse range of products.”

Source: Bloomberg

March 3, 2011

US Unemployment Claims Fall to 2 1/2 Year Low

Following on the heels of yesterday’s ADP survey concluding that 215,000 new jobs were created in the private sector, the most recent jobless claims data adds further evidence that the employment outlook is improving. According to the Labor Department, new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 20,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 368,000 new claims and is the best result since May, 2008.

“The downward trend in claims suggests that the labor market is getting back to health,” said Krishen Rangasamy, an economist at CIBC World Markets in Toronto.

Source: Reuters

September 28, 2010

US Consumer Confidence on the Decline

Consumer confidence in the US fell more than expected in September, falling to 48.5 on the Conference Board’s index compared to 53.2 in August. A survey of economists had predicted a smaller decline to 52.1. There is little doubt that unemployment, expected to remain above 9 percent well into 2011, is the primary factor contributing to the sharply weaker consumer outlook.

“It’s really all about the labor market,” Tom Porcelli, a senior economist at RBS Capital Markets Corp. in New York, said before the report. “We are now more than a year into recovery, yet we have not seen any meaningful job growth and the unemployment rate is likely to remain elevated for an extended period. There is an enormous amount of uncertainty.”

Source: Bloomberg

September 1, 2010

ADP Payroll Report Finds Job Losses on the Increase

The monthly ADP Employer Services survey shows that US employment fell by 10,000 during the month of August, the first monthly job loss since January. This flies in the face of a survey of economists that forecast a gain of 15,000 jobs.

“The labor market is really in peril as businesses are just being very cautious,” said David Semmens, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, the only economist surveyed to accurately forecast the loss in private jobs. Today’s figures “will drag down expectations for the Friday payrolls report. The stability surrounding the recovery is declining.”

Source: Bloomberg

Manufacturing on the Increase in China

For the first time in four months, China’s Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) recorded an increase rising to 51.7 in August from 51.2 in July. A number above 50 on the index indicates an increase in activity.

The latest result will ease concern that growth is waning in China which is seen as a vital component in leading the global economy to recovery.

Source: BBC News

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