Forex Blog

September 1, 2011

August 30, 2011

Forex Market Outlook 8/30/11

It’s good to be back in NYC after evacuating for the hurricane.  While NYC appears to have fared reasonably well, the same can’t be said of other areas.  I hope everyone who was affected by the devastation is able to get back to normal as quickly as possible.

As far as the forex market is concerned, this was nothing more than a minor inconvenience and the show must go on as they say.  Markets actually fared surprising well yesterday, as there was major risk appetite in the markets despite a less-than desirable outcome from Bernanke’s speech last Friday.  Positive economic news out of Greece was the primary driver, though they are not out of the woods just yet. While some in the marketplace had been hoping for additional monetary stimulus, Monday’s market action suggests that investors are still willing to buy even when there isn’t “free money”.

Yet this morning, we are giving back some of those gains as the focus returns to the Euro zone and the debt crisis they are still facing.  The agreement that was reached on July 21st has not been approved yet and there is speculation in the market that Chancellor Merkel of Germany may not have enough votes to ratify the agreement.  The politics in Germany have been an important aspect of the negotiations and the market is cautious to see if Merkel can get the required support.

In the meantime in the Euro zone, confidence figures are back to 2008 lows as the global economic slowdown and accompanying debt crisis have left both businesses and consumers feeling malaise.  Most of today’s data is sentiment-related so while it is not a true measure of activity, it could be a harbinger of the global economy down the road.

Business confidence in the UK is also at 2008 lows, as declining growth figures and an uncertain global economic picture aren’t things to inspire cheerfulness.

Later this morning, US consumer confidence figures and home prices figures are expected to come in lower, and the market is preparing for this Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report which may be the single most important data point. 

Meanwhile, gold just jumped sharply as Fed Governor Evans was speaking with regard to monetary policy and these guys need to realize that their words sometimes have consequences.  We are going to learn more from the Fed later this afternoon, as the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting is due.  The interesting thing about these minutes is that market participants will be looking to see what exactly it was that caused the Fed to change policy and set a specific 2-year target for maintaining interest rate policy from the “extended period” language they had used for some time.

Earlier in the Asian session, the Kiwi was higher as building permits figures came in much better than expected, though it is giving back some gains as risk aversion picks up pace.  In Japan, the unemployment rate ticked slightly higher and retail sales figures were lower.  In addition, Finance Minister Noda was elected as the next premier of Japan, succeeding Kan.

So there is seemingly a lot happening around the globe, though there isn’t one particular thing that the markets can look to for guidance.  I suspect that we are going to see continued range-bound activity with a slightly higher bias.  Markets may advance in the US session and early Asian session, but decline in the European session.

Right now the major problem affecting the global economy is the continued Euro debt crisis so the longer this drags out or goes unresolved, the weaker those markets will seem.  With interest rates at ridiculously low levels (and staying here in the US for at least 2 years if the Fed has their way), the market will reluctantly buy stocks as there is no other game in town.  This may bear the guise of “risk appetite” though it is more likely the case of indifference.

Now if the Fed can just get this to translate to the housing market, they might be on to something.  But this is a tough haul, and declining confidence figures may make this a near impossibility.  In the meantime, if inflation rears its ugly head then we could be in for a major stagflationary environment. 

August 26, 2011

Forex Market Outlook 8/26/11

Today is the day the markets have been waiting for some time, as Bernanke’s speech from the Jackson Hole Symposium is the most heavily-anticipated economic forecast in memory.  We have obviously seem economic weakness and the Fed alone has been trying to tackle the issues that plague us as the fiscal side of the ledger has gone unattended due to a lack of leadership and political gridlock in Washington DC.

Speaking of political leadership, the Japanese Prime Minister Noda resigned last night after criticism of his handling of the natural disaster made him ineffectual.  (Could you ever imagine a US politician doing this?  Me neither!)

We received a glimpse of this dreary picture earlier this morning as GDP figures came in slightly lower than expected, showing 1% growth vs. the expected 1.1%.  Personal consumption figures came in higher than expected, showing an increase of .4% vs. the expected .2%.  This all adds up to slowing growth, though this is the type of report that brings relief as it could have been a lot worse.

Earlier this morning, the UK reported GDP figures that came in as expected, showing quarterly growth of .2% and a YoY figure of .7%.  This also is declining growth which has the BOE policy-makers concerned and may produce some further monetary easing if conditions get worse.  However, further easing could push inflation higher than the already high 4.4%, which is more than twice the Central bank’s target rate.

But back to Bernanke, what will he say today?  How will the markets react?  With the insane amount of volatility we have experienced of late, the response is likely to be knee-jerk and should produce wide swings.

There are essentially two schools of thought on this matter:  he will either hint at further easing, or he will not.  At this point, no one is expecting him to launch “QE3” though he could put forth that possibility.

If he chooses the first option and sets the table for further easing, he could do so by laying out the potential policy tools he could use.  Whether its further bond buying, buying mortgages, targeting the longer duration bonds or some other measure the market reaction would likely be to sell the Dollar and jump into just about anything else.

But from a longer-term perspective, this could be offset by the problems we are seeing in the Euro zone which have gone unnoticed as the focus has been on today’s speech.  Greek 2-year yields are at all-time highs and it is unclear if the vote to expand the EFSF will pass in its current form.  The German stock index (DAX) is down nearly 20% this month alone!

With the specter of further easing, commodities and stocks are likely to be the beneficiary and the impact to the real economy could be little at best.  This could also induce higher inflation, which would choke economic activity as well.

If Bernanke says nothing today that is new from a policy perspective, then the markets are likely to be disappointed and we could see some Dollar strength right out of the gate.  Though the long-term impact is uncertain, I believe that stocks (particularly ones with high dividends) will be in favor as there really is nowhere else to put your money.  The initial flight to safety trade could go on straight through the Euro vote on the EFSF as that would be the major risk in the marketplace.

Next week the politicians will be back and we’re expected to hear from Obama about his jobs plan, which was apparently too involved to reveal prior to his vacation so the country has to wait another week.  Expect to also hear the rhetoric for increased government spending and not reduction to take place, as the stalemate and gridlock hopefully don’t drive us off the proverbial economic cliff.

So what will I be in prior to this speech?  Nothing.  As a trader, I prefer no to try to guess what is going to happen but rather to take a wait and see approach and look for potential low risk opportunities that may be created by volatility.  So trade cautiously, as volatility can be your friend but can also be your worst enemy if you get stuck in the wrong trade!

August 8, 2011

Forex Outlook 8/8/11

This morning the markets are responding reasonably well after Friday’s S&P downgrade of the US.  The beleaguered ratings agency, who some say was largely responsibly for the banking crisis of 2008 dropped the US from AAA to AA as they forewarned if serious deficit reduction wasn’t agreed to in the debt ceiling debate.

While stocks and oil are much lower to start the day, gold has surged to new nominal all-time highs at $1715.  The currency market sees this as “much ado about nothing” as it is trading orderly and looks like just another volatile day.

Because indeed, this much ado about nothing.  There is a 0% chance that the US will default on its obligations as the Fed has the ability to turn on the printing press and print money to satisfy our creditors.  However, this could be a question of valuation as the Dollar would be worth far less in that situation.

And that is one of the issues that some aren’t taking into consideration, that not only is it important that we are able to repay our debts, but that we are able to do so with something of value.  Currency risk and political risk are all factors that need to be considered, and I think this is a great wake-up call for those in Washington DC who wish to continue to do business as usual.

Meanwhile in the Euro zone, the ECB has agreed to step up its purchases of Italian and Spanish debt, essentially trying to keep yields low so that debt can be repaid.  While there is still risk in the marketplace, the global slowdown is a far bigger risk than the US potentially defaulting.

With no other news on the docket today, all eyes will be looking toward the FOMC meeting tomorrow which is bound to address this new development.  Many in the market believe that this will lead to another round of quantitative easing (QE3), though its effectiveness at this juncture is uncertain.  Some argue that the temporary kick we got from Fed easing was ineffective as the markets right now are back to pre-QE2 levels.

So there is risk aversion in the markets today, with the Dollar strengthening in what some might see as a counter-intuitive move.  However this could become a case of sell the rumor, buy the news as this really is nothing more than egg on the face of Washington DC politicians who are conveniently on vacation until the end of the month.  Get it together people!

August 4, 2011

Forex Outlook 8/4/11

Filed under: Forex News — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 6:56 am

July 22, 2011

Hooray For Europe!

Filed under: Forex News — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 7:26 am

Yesterday’s market reaction to the news out of the EU could not have been a more perfect scenario for those searching for a ray of hope that the global economy might actually be able to move forward. News out of Brussels was that indeed a solution to the Euro debt crisis had been agreed upon, going a lot further than most had thought possible.

While the markets are still trying to judge the merits of the resolution, the EU took some bold steps to try to stem the crisis. Some of the highlights: Greece gets a larger bailout—but needs to enact major austerity to receive it; Greece gets AAA-rated terms for borrowing from the ECB and EFSF, as does Portugal and Ireland if needed; the ECB will buy bonds and essentially be a “bidder of last resort”, all but daring speculators to try to drive yields higher on Spain, Italy, or others (think ‘don’t fight the Fed’). These are extraordinary measures that will give the debt-burdened countries a chance at redemption. However, the question remains as to whether or not the austerity required is too draconian, and the likelihood that it can be accomplished. One other thing to note however is that the EFSF was not expanded so the size of the emergency facility remains at 440 billion euros, which hopefully is enough to manage future liquidity issues.

While this serves the markets purposes for now, it appears likely that the EU economy is going to shrink in size as austerity is enacted throughout the region. One early sign is that German IFO confidence figures have come in lower than expected, though Euro zone industrial orders picked up for the month.

The rally that took place yesterday has followed through to this morning, with stocks in Asia and Europe up overnight, as are commodities. Next up is the US debt ceiling debate, and the politics surrounding it has gotten so nasty that it’s almost become comical. A deal will definitely get done and the only question is at whose expense.

In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is mostly higher, easily clearing the resistance identified yesterday at 1.08 vs. USD. Export and import prices have risen, which could give rise to inflation down under.

Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is has rocketed higher to 86.75, just south of my target of .87 from earlier this weak. Inflation expectations are rising, which means that so are interest rate hike expectations as well.

Loonie (CAD): The only other fundamental data out his morning has come from Canada, which reported lower than expected CPI data that has sent the Loonie lower, despite oil trading up to $100. Core CPI came in at 1.3% vs. an expectation of 1.9%, and the headline figure came in at 3.1% vs. an expected 3.6%. This may buy the BOC time to allow the economy to continue with lower rates as prices seemingly are under control. Better than expected retail sales figures showed a gain of .5% vs. an expected .3%, which shows economic improvement. (Click chart to enlarge)

usdcad0722.JPG

Euro (EUR): The Euro has pulled back some to under 1.44 vs. USD as markets are set to open slightly lower here in the US. While the market seemed pleased with the initial resolution form yesterday, as more is learned about the deal, the less enamored the markets may become. (Click chart to enlarge)

eurusd0722.JPG

Pound (GBP): The Pound is also pulling back after yesterday’s rally and with no news on the docket may be a victim of having traveled too far, too fast.

Swissie (CHF): The SNB has been thankful of late that risk is abating in the global economy as the franc becomes less desirable when safe-havens are out of favor.

Dollar (USD): I’ve read some analyses that claim that yesterday’s massive moves were more a function of Dollar weakness than Euro strength. The markets are looking for any indication that the global economy is stabilizing, as the appetite for risk is increasing as cheap money floods the globe. We need a compromise on the debt ceiling debate to really instill confidence.

Yen (JPY): The Yen is picking up some strength as risk appetites are turning to risk aversion as the morning moves forward. Nevertheless it was lower yesterday as carry trades were re-established.

As I said yesterday, “buy the rumor, sell the news”. While the Euro debt crisis resolution may be better news than expected, the devil is always in the details. As the markets start the comprehend all that needs to be done, opinions over the deal may change.

While we are seeing a pull-back in the early action here in the US, this could be more of a function of jittery markets still being fearful heading into the weekend. The debt ceiling debate rages on here in the US and should it seem less likely that a deal can be reached, then the markets may react quickly.

So now it is up to the US, and hopefully we can cast the politics aside for the better of all and not just a specific political base.

To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!

To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!

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Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, cad, canada, carry trade, China, commodities, commodity, course, currencies, currency, currency market, currency pairs, currency trading, decision, dollar, dow, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, Europe, fear, forex, forex market, forex trading, fundamental, fx, fxedu, gbp, gold, interest, interest rate, interest rates, invest, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, market, Mike Conlon, new zealand, news, nzd, oil, pound, practice, practice account, rate decision, RSI, sentiment, stock, time, trade, trader, trades, trend, unemployment, USD, Yen

July 21, 2011

June 24, 2011

Market Rollercoaster!

Filed under: Forex News — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 7:30 am

Wow, what a wild ride yesterday was in the global market place! We had a bit of everything: gloom and doom, government manipulation, weakening economic data, crisis resolution, fear, anger, and hope. Where else can you get this type of excitement?Here’s a quick recap of what happened over the past few days: Dollar was strengthening after the FOMC said that QE2 would end, taking down global stocks and commodities. The EIA then said that the US would release 30 million barrels of oil from our strategic reserve, driving oil prices lower and sending correlated markets such as stocks lower. Later in the day it was announced that Greece had accepted a 5-year austerity plan and will be receiving money form the EU and IMF as part of a new bailout (though the actual vote is next week), so the markets rebounded only to finish slightly lower.

Frankly, I am outraged by the oil thing but not surprised. While yes I am in favor of lower oil (gasoline) prices, I am not in favor of achieving them by weakening our emergency reserves. What happens if a situation arises where we need that oil? It’s like raiding your emergency savings account to go on vacation. Politics at its worse.

Meanwhile in the Euro zone, it looks like the Greece austerity deal will go through next week, despite the protestations of nearly 75% of Greek citizens polled.

Here in the US, durable goods orders came in better than expected, posting a gain of 1.9% vs. an expectation of 1.5%, which is a welcome better-than-expected data point.

So the markets are starting the day in mild risk taking mode with stocks set to open higher, though oil prices are lower.

In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is higher across the board after Asian stocks were higher overnight on risk taking after yesterday’s comeback in US stocks.

Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is strengthening as risk trades are being re-established after the Greek debt crisis announcement.

Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is mixed as risk appetite and lower oil prices fight to see which aspect will dominate trading today.

Euro (EUR): The Euro is off of its previous highs and has pulled back some as they are not out of the woods yet. While yesterday’s news of the agreement is extremely positive, the vote hasn’t actually taken place yet. German IFO expectations figures came in better than expected. (Click chart to enlarge)

eurusd0624.JPG

Pound (GBP): The Pound is mostly lower as rate expectations for the UK have been lowered and there is considerable concern about the exposure that UK banks have to the Euro zone.

Swissie (CHF): The franc is stronger across the board today despite the mild risk taking in the markets to start the day. The safe haven aspects of the Swissie may still be desirable until after the Greek austerity plan is officially voted on and accepted. (Click chart to enlarge)

usdchf0624.JPG

Dollar (USD): The Dollar is weakening on slight risk appetite after US durable goods orders came in better than expected. It will be interesting to see if the Dollar will continue to weaken without the aid of the Fed, or if it can co-exist in higher stock market environment if the correlations break down.

Yen (JPY): The Yen is showing some surprising strength despite the higher Asian stock market returns overnight. While there is still risk in the marketplace that appears to be coming from the EU and UK specifically, cautious buying persists.

Wild market action indeed! Whether you agree with what is going on in the marketplace or not is of no consequence. What is important is that you have a plan to protect yourself from unexpected events that can cause major volatility.

If summer volume decreases, then volatility could definitely pick up. This is exciting for forex traders because volatility equals potential. There are still many different global events that will carry trading well into the next few months, and there is still great risk and opportunity.

However, this doesn’t change this mess that is known as the US economy. It appears as though election cycle politics are in full-effect so it is doubtful that anything meaningful will get done. The debate over the US debt ceiling may come into play as ideology gets left behind in favor of pragmatism, but don’t expect wholesale changes overnight.

The business climate is still an abomination, with the new healthcare bill, regulations, potential for tax increases, and a reluctance to reduce the size of government and debt all factoring in to keep businesses from hiring. The fact that there is actually debate over the fact that the current path we are on is disastrous is both scary and sad.

So invest your money in countries on the right path, and stay away form those destined for doom. The best way I know of to do this is through the forex market!

To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!

To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!

Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, bank, blog, cad, carr, CHF, commodities, course, crisis, currenc, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, dollar, dow, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, fear, fed, forex, forex market, forextrading, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, Il, interest, invest, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, market, Mike Conlon, money, news, nzd, oil, pound, practice, practice account, RSI, ssi, stock, stocks, Swiss, time, trade, trader, trades, USD, Yen

April 1, 2011

Non-Farm Payrolls! Live Webinar This Morning!

Today there is no market analysis or focus on the individual currency pairs as ALL eyes are on the US Non-Farm Payrolls report at 8:30AM EST.   The report is expected to show a gain of 190K jobs, with a change in private payrolls of 216K.  The unemployment rate is expected to remainb steady at 8.9%.

This is the most important news event for the forex market which is bound to induce a lot of volatility.  In that vain, I am conducting a LIVE TRADING WEBINAR starting at 8:15AM EST to show my readers how they can use price action trading to trade the market during this event to mitigate risk. 

If you haven’t done so already, please sign up at this link to be able to participate:

https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/425433961

Hope to see you there!

  

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December 10, 2010

New Partnership!

Filed under: Forex News — Tags: , , , , , , , — admin @ 7:30 pm

We are pleased to announce a new partnership with the forex website, Currensee. Currensee is an online, forex community that has many member benefits. Among them, you can interact with other forex traders, and even have the ability to follow the trading of some of the more seasoned members! So you can see why we are excited about this new affiliation as it just one more way that we bring forex education to you.

To commemorate this new relationship, I will be conducting a live webinar, Trading Forex Like A Pro, in which will show you how I prepare for each day’s trading activity.

In addition, for those of you who sign up for this webinar, we will be offering you the opportunity to have FREE access to our introductory forex trading course ($100 value). Join the webinar to find out how to take advantage of this offer!

SIGN UP FOR WEBINAR HERE!

Those of you who work with me know that I am a stickler for preparation.  In order to do battle in the forex market daily, you have to be prepared and you have to have a plan.  As each of us is different and have different trading styles, our trading plans will vary.

However, how we all prepare for the market day can be similar as we all share a common goal–to make money in the forex market!!!
So please join me at our next webinar, Trading Forex Like A Pro, to see how I prepare to trade each and every day.

Much like a professional athlete, a professional trader must develop a routine to prepare for success.  This will help your trading become second nature to you, and ensure that you won’t miss out on important things that can affect your bottom line.

This webinar will be given on Thursday, December 16th at 11AM EST and will last roughly one hour.

You will learn:

How to quickly read the charts to find the day’s possible range
Where to go to see news items that could affect a currency pair
How to use that news to trade the markets
How to locate patterns and possible entry and exit points
And a whole lot more!

So what are you waiting for? Join me for this webinar to see why the forex market has become the fastest growing financial market in the world! This webinar is absolutely FREE and requires no obligation.

Don’t take my word for it, come see for yourself.  Take advantage of this special offer, because a few minutes of your time today, could change your life for the better tomorrow!

SIGN UP FOR WEBINAR HERE.

I hope to see you there.

Tags: charts, course, currenc, currency, currency pair, education, financial, forex, forex market, forex trading, free, Il, life, live, lot, make money, meeting, minutes, news, rate, ssi, time, trade, trader, webinar

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