August 22, 2011
August 17, 2011
July 22, 2011
November 22, 2010
Who’s Up Next?
As was expected, Ireland requested a rescue of its banks to the tune of $130 billion, with various downgrades likely to follow. The initial reaction was Euro-positive, but as I mentioned last week the result is likely to be negative, as the market turns its attention to both Portugal and Spain.
While the exact details of the Irish deal are unclear at this time, there is going to be a re-structuring of the banking system at the very minimum. The Euro should continue to be volatile as markets punish the bonds of Portugal and Spain. The EU needs to come up with a viable solution to promote stability in the region or we could just see this story played over and over again until the EU emergency fund has been completely tapped.
Portuguese debt is among the highest in the world and Spain is the 4th largest economy in the Euro zone so further attacks on these countries’ bonds could exacerbate the problem much worse than what we saw from Ireland. Expect more volatility in the market as further details of the Irish bailout are released.
There’s not a lot of economic data due out today in this shortened holiday week here in the US. Markets are mixed this morning with stocks and commodities lower and specific weakness in both the Pound and the Euro.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is surprisingly higher as the market appears to be leaning toward risk aversion this morning. This week is a light week for economic data from Australia, so perhaps they are benefiting from Euro and Pound money flows this morning.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is lower across the board as S&P downgraded NZ’s credit-rating outlook to negative, citing a reduced outlook for global demand. (Click chart to enlarge)
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is mixed as oil is slightly lower this morning but like the Aussie may be catching a bid as investors seek places to stash their dough. Tomorrow is a busy day of data in Canada, as retail sales and CPI data are on the docket.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is lower despite the news of the bailout for Ireland, as now the question of contagion becomes the bigger issue. While there is some data due out for the region this week, the more pressing concern is structural in nature, as the Euro hopes to avoid the type of declines that we saw earlier this year. (Click chart to enlarge)
Pound (GBP): The Pound is also lower as the UK’s close ties to the Irish banking center and the threat of contagion is weighing on the currency and stocks alike. Wednesday is the UK GDP report which will provide further insight into the health of the UK economy as austerity measures begin to take place.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is mostly higher as would be normal in a risk aversion scenario. This is a holiday week her in the US with Thanksgiving on Thursday, so most of this week’s data will be released tomorrow and Wednesday. Tomorrow is GDP and personal consumption data along with existing home sales, with Wednesday bring durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, and the U Michigan confidence survey.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is mostly higher though in recent times it has not behaved like we would expect from a “safe-haven” currency. Thursday is CPI data so we will get a better idea of how bad deflation is in Japan.
As the market begins to learn more about the details of the Irish bailout, the focus will now turn to both Portugal and Spain as they are the two most vulnerable countries in the Euro zone. Unless the EU comes up with some type of plan to keep bond yields from rising (perhaps a short ban?), we are likely to see these two flirt with disaster.
While Portugal is in much worse shape than Spain, the latter is a much larger economy so market participants may feel emboldened to strike at the bigger prize. The Spanish economy is still mired in a major housing bubble and has rampant unemployment. If the ratings agencies decide to take aim at either country, it could get the ball rolling downhill.
With the Thanksgiving holiday here in the US likely to slow the markets down toward the end of the week, we could see some added volatility. I seem to recall last year there was some news (can’t remember what) over the Thanksgiving holiday that induced risk aversion, so be cautious heading in toward the end of the weekend.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, blog, cad, canada, commodities, course, currenc, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, dollar, dow, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, forex, forex market, forextrading, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, home, Il, invest, investor, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, loonie, lot, lower, market, Mike Conlon, money, news, nzd, oil, pound, practice, practice account, release, retail sales, RSI, short, ssi, stocks, time, unemployment, USD, Yen
September 7, 2010
Euro Banking Concerns!
After the long weekend here in the US, the markets have started out decidedly in risk aversion mode. On a day that is light of economic data, concerns over European debt have picked up as bond spreads have widened on both Irish and Greek debt. Questions over capital ratios for the some of the European banks are not new, yet somehow this “news” is making its way to the headlines.
In addition, German factory orders unexpectedly weakened as demand wanes amidst global turmoil.
Overnight, Australia made no changes to interest rates as expected, citing weakening global growth, particularly here in the US. In addition, new PM Gillard has been confirmed and remains committed to taxing mining profits.
The Japanese Yen is the biggest gainer as the BOJ left rates unchanged and did not make any further statements regarding Yen intervention. The Yen is now at a new 15-year high vs. the Dollar as speculation of further US quantitative easing could cause further Yen strength.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is lower as the RBA left rates unchanged overnight at 4.5%. Risk aversion in the markets has added to weakness as construction spending declined for the third month in a row. New PM Gillard’s push for a mining tax may be seen as negative. (Click chart to enlarge)
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is also lower on risk aversion after last week’s earthquake in New Zealand’s second largest city rocked the country. However, this event is now being seen as an economic positive for the country as it will create jobs to rebuild. So GDP will likely come in a tad lower, and rates will remain unchanged.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is mostly lower as oil is lower to 73.25 and the sentiment over the global economic slowdown is causing reduced demand for risk currencies. However, tomorrow’s interest rate decision has the market divided as a slight majority of analysts see the BOC raising rates to 1%. It will be interesting to see if the threat of a global economic slowdown is enough to keep policy unchanged.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is lower across the board as European debt concerns come back into focus. In addition, German factory orders declined 2.2% vs. an expectation of a gain of .5%. This is causing renewed fears of the “old double dip” to heat up, although I’m not certain what exactly has caused those fears to increase. Perhaps the benefit of a lower Euro is welcome news enough.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is mixed this morning, tracking higher vs. the risk currencies and Euro. This comes ahead of Thursday’s rate policy meeting where the BOE is expected to leave policy unchanged. Retail sales came in higher as back-to-school shopping helped consumer demand. It will be interesting to see how the BOE justifies higher inflation in light of dovish policy. (Click chart to enlarge)
Dollar (USD): There’s no real news for the Dollar today but tomorrow will bring the Fed release of the Beige Book economic report. I can’t imagine there is anything encouraging to report, and if there was I’m not certain anyone would believe it. Meanwhile, the President is putting forth a new economic band-aid in the form of temporary tax breaks for business, which again is likely to fall short of accomplishing much. The Dollar is getting a boost from its safe haven status.
Yen (JPY): The Yen continues to move higher vs. the Dollar and I think the Japanese are starting to realize that there isn’t anything they can do about it. Not only is US opposition to Yen intervention likely, but calls for further quantitative easing from the Fed would almost certainly cause further Yen strength. Overnight, the BOJ made no changes to monetary policy after its token injection of liquidity at the emergency meeting from Aug. 30th. (Click chart to enlarge)
As the problems in the world economy reach center stage, it is becoming more apparent that fear around the globe is likely to persist for some time. Even though there are some good economic stories around the globe, there are some equally bad ones as well.
This is as much a crisis of confidence as it is of any one factor. Sure we know about the debt problems in Europe, yet bond auctions have been going off with a hitch. Could that change in the future? Absolutely. And in fact the market may demand more in the way of interest to continue to lend to troubled nations.
But until that happens, I don’t see any more of a problem today than any other day. As China continues to divest itself of US dollars, money will continue to find its way to areas that need it.
Emerging economies are the beneficiary right now of economic weakness from the Big Boy economies, however domestic demand needs to be encouraged to balance out global trade.
Japan is one nation where this couldn’t be more appropriate, and now with a stronger Yen they will have an opportunity to pick up some of the slack. For the US can no longer be the buyer of last resort, as both government and consumer balance sheets are tapped out.
The sooner the world realizes this, the better.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, blog, cad, China, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, dollar, dow, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, Europe, fear, fed, forex, forex market, forextrading, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, Il, interest, interest rate, interest rates, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, market, meeting, Mike Conlon, money, new zealand, news, nzd, oil, pound, practice, practice account, retail sales, RSI, short, ssi, time, trade, USD, Yen
September 3, 2010
Non-Farm Payrolls Improve!
This morning, the US Non-Farm Payrolls report was the catalyst that has pushed the market higher as all eyes were glued to this news. The report came in better than expected, showing that payrolls decreased 54K vs. an expectation of a loss of 105K, but 67K private sector jobs were added. The unemployment rate came in at 9.6%.
While these numbers are far from excellent, the news that they were not worse than expected is seen as an encouraging sign that the economy here in the US may not be as bad as was previously thought. The major challenge that the US economy is facing is how to put people back to work.
Employment sparks the cycle of spending, consumption, then growth. The US consumer represents roughly two-thirds of US GDP; so if people are out of work they are not spending which reduces growth.
And while one reading does not make a trend, this is an encouraging sign after all of the doom and gloom experienced last month. However, we still have a LONG way to go with regard to the employment picture, as roughly 200K jobs added a month are needed just to keep pace with new entrants into the workforce. So before we get too excited, let’s remember that the overall figure is still a LOSS of jobs. The fact that private sector job increased is the most positive take away from this report.
There is a dearth of news from around the globe, and the market is most definitely in risk taking mode.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is higher this morning as risk appetite has increased. A report out of Goldman Sachs said that the RBA could begin raising rates again in November. (Click chart to enlarge)
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is also higher on risk appetite and the lack of news has it trading on risk themes.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is also higher on risk appetite as oil prices have rebounded from earlier lows and are back above $75. In addition, the Loonie has been beaten up pretty badly of late as the negative news of last month has mostly been coming from the US economy.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is trading mixed this morning, mostly lower against the commodity currencies but higher vs. Dollar and Yen. Euro zone PMI figures came in slightly better than expected but retail sales for the month were lower by .1% vs. an expectation of a gain of .2%.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is catching a nice bounce today from risk appetite as austerity measures have affected recent economic data to the downside. So the Pound has been weaker of late, yet the UK economy still appears to be on the right track. However, PMI figures came in less than expected. (Click chart to enlarge)
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is weaker this morning as risk appetite due to the NFP report has been seen as encouraging. Much of the negative economic news in the global economy has been coming from the US, so a better than expected report is viewed as positive.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is weaker across the board as risk-taking has discouraged demand for safe havens. The Yen has been strengthening of late as the market is testing the resolve of policy-makers to intervene in the currency. (Click chart to enlarge)
The obvious driver of markets today is the Non-Farm Payrolls and the better-than-expected result has encouraged risk appetite. Not to be a “Debbie Downer”, but this number still needs to improve immensely before we get back to normal.
Perhaps economic policy will change to further encourage business and hiring, but at this point I don’t see it happening as quickly as it needs to.
Happy Labor Day to All!
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, cad, commodity, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, dollar, dow, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, forex, forex market, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, gold, Il, intervene, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, Mike Conlon, news, nfp, nzd, oil, payrolls, pound, practice, practice account, rate, retail sales, ssi, time, trend, unemployment, USD, Yen
July 2, 2010
Dependence Day?
Going into this Fourth of July weekend, I can’t help but think about the state of the US economy and how we have become so dependent on government to fix society’s ills. This morning, the US Non-Farm Payrolls report came out and it showed that we had an overall jobs decline of 125K, but an increase in private sector hiring to 83K, which was better than last month but less than expectations. In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 9.5%, but this was more a function of people leaving the work force than economic and jobs growth.
Part of the reason we see these distorted numbers is because of the decline of census workers, but private sector job growth has been tepid at best. This is all a function of the current economic climate in Washington DC, and government policy which businesses deem as uncertain. Without private sector growth, the economy could be in danger of sliding into double dip recession.
In other news, PPI figures in Europe came in as expected, and Moody’s ratings agency re-affirmed the UK’s AAA rating.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie has been volatile and is now higher as the market reacts to the NFP number. In addition, the PM is backing away from the mining tax as Australia prepares for a potential economic slowdown.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is also higher on risk taking, and is the best performer this morning as New Zealand is seen as potentially the next to raise interest rates.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is lower as traders are paring back speculation that Canada will raise rates this month. Tepid Canadian GDP figures in addition to the potential US economic slowdown could affect the Canadian economy as the US is the largest importer of Canadian goods. Also to note is that oil is trading lower to roughly 72.50.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is higher against all but the Kiwi, as continued confidence that the banking situation may not be as bad as expected is gaining traction. In addition, the market is speaking loud and clear that it favors the EU plan of economic austerity to the US plan of spend, extend, and pretend. In addition, Euro zone unemployment came in slightly better than expected at 10%, and PPI figures came in higher at 3.1%, showing that wholesale inflation is the highest it’s been in 19 months. However, don’t expect the ECB to move on rates anytime soon.
Pound (GBP): The pound is higher as Moody’s reaffirmed the UK’s AAA rating citing the deficit reduction plan as positive.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is mostly lower, as economic prospects in the US are diminishing. Until we get policy that will encourage business and not harm it, we are going to have high unemployment for some time. Now that unemployment benefits have not been extended, more people will have to get off of the dole and get a job, even if it’s far less than they desired. This potential political backlash could cost the incumbent party in November if the economy continues to worsen.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is lower on risk appetite as the market is deeming the NFP number “acceptable”, as the worst-case scenario fears were averted.
There really is no other way to say other than the US is on the wrong path and the continued spend, extend, and pretend policies of this administration are going to harm the US for some time.
Whether you believe in the free markets or not is of no consequence; as no one can deny that private business is the largest employer of workers. If you create a hostile environment for business, they’re not going to hire. Period.
Go ahead and raise taxes on business, they’ll move elsewhere thereby removing even more jobs. Anyone who believes that higher taxes aren’t coming down the pike lives in fantasy land. With out of control spending taking place on a daily basis, this isn’t going to end well.
I hate to write this so close to July 4th, the day on which our forefathers said ‘no more’ to the unfair policies that were imposed upon them. However, it seems cruelly ironic that as our forefathers roll over in their graves; their successors are trying to emulate the same policies that they rejected 234 years ago.
So Happy 4th of July to all…. as this may be one of the last truly Independence days if we continue down this path. By the time the dust settles, we may be saying, “Happy Dependence Day” as we all line up for our government checks and government cheese.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, cad, canada, course, currenc, currency, currency market, currency trading, dollar, dow, ECB, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, Europe, fear, forex, forex market, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, Il, interest, interest rate, interest rates, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, market, Mike Conlon, new zealand, news, nfa, nfp, nzd, oil, payrolls, pound, practice, practice account, recession, ssi, time, trade, trader, unemployment, USD, Yen
June 15, 2010
Greek Junk!
Yesterday, Moody’s ratings agency cut Greece’s credit rating from investment grade to junk, citing the economic risks the nation is facing. This derailed yesterday’s rally, and reversed some of the gains just as the Euro session closed. However, defenders are quick to point out that this news has already been factored in by the market and that conditions in Greece have improved since the data used to make the downgrade.
So it looks like the Euro has dodged a bullet—for now. In addition, German economic sentiment came in well below expectations showing signs that the picture is not as rosy as today’s market would have you believe. However, the Euro is higher vs. the Dollar and European stock markets are higher despite what some would consider heightened risk.
In the UK, CPI data declined for the first time in 3 months though housing prices ticked higher showing mixed results in the inflation picture.
Overnight at the Japanese rate policy meeting, BOJ officials unveiled a 33 billion stimulus program despite the comments that the export-led recovery is starting to spread to private domestic demand.
So this morning is a bit of a mixed bag, with stock markets higher, USD lower, but Yen and Euro higher. It will be interesting to see if these markets fall back in line with their usual correlations, or continue on their own path.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): Overnight, minutes from the Australian central bank showed that concern over the European debt crisis may cause the bank to pause from future rate hikes. The RBA has “flexibility”, as previous rate hikes have appeared to have quelled inflation. In addition, in what some may view as counter-intuitive, an RBA Governor said that he would welcome slower Chinese growth, as it would allow the Australian economy to grow at a more moderate pace.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is higher this morning as oil has gained to $75.75 due to an increase in demand and a potential supply shock due to the gulf oil spill. In addition, there is a report out that corporations are diversifying away from the Euro and are issue bonds in Loonies, which could be a driver of demand.
Kiwi (NZD): From the not-so-fast department, the Kiwi is lower across the board after 4 days of gains following its rate hike. Overnight, home prices came in lower than expected, falling 1.4%. This may give the RBNZ a reason to pause rate hikes and to move slowly. The RBNZ would like to see a weaker Kiwi to help exports, and this housing figure may be a harbinger that inflation is tame in NZ.
Euro (EUR): So it looks like the Euro is brushing off the Greek credit downgrade as it is trading higher this morning. In addition to the downgrade, German business sentiment came in way below expectations, yet the Euro is higher. There are rumblings around the market of other potential downgrades and measures that other countries should be taking. In my mind this is heightened risk, but the market isn’t seeing that way. Remember to trade what you see and not what you think you know!
Pound (GBP): The Pound is mixed this morning as inflation data slowed for the first time in 3 months. CPI figures came in at 3.4% vs. an expectation of 3.5%. This is higher than the government target figures of 3%, though economists are predicting a decline back below the upper band of the range by mid-year. However, housing prices also rose as demand picked up the most since January. While there is a lot of talk that inflation in the UK is “contained”, only time will tell if this is the case.
Dollar (USD): Stock markets appear to be driving the forex market today, as higher equities prices are reducing the demand for dollars. Empire manufacturing figures came in slightly less than expected but showing growth nevertheless, and import prices came in lower, probably due to recent dollar strength.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is surprisingly strong this morning as risk appetite appears to be happening this morning. Perhaps there is hesitation that carry trades may not be due to advance due to interest rate pauses in Australia and New Zealand. In addition, the BOJ signaled they would be instituting a $33 billion stimulus program to encourage business lending.
So today is kind of an “odd” day, as the currencies are trading more on their own fundamentals and not so much on risk themes. Today is seemingly a risk-taking day, though the demand for carry trades has been reduced due to Yen strength and possible interest rate pauses from the commodity currencies.
The Loonie is catching a bid as oil trades higher and Canada becomes a destination for capital-raising as an alternative to the Euro zone.
The UK is telling us there is no inflation, but the market may be thinking otherwise.
And lastly, the Euro is defying gravity and shrugging off credit downgrades. Perhaps these credit ratings agencies are losing their own credibility, or the market needs to see more from a risk perspective in order to sell-off the Euro. Either way, there is still risk in the market and the market may want to “see” problems occur than “hear” about them.
So don’t fall for the game of “show and tell”—and trade what you see and not what everyone wants you to know!
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, cad, canada, carr, carry trade, commodity, course, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, dollar, dow, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, Europe, forex, forex market, free, fundamental, fx, fxedu, gbp, Il, interest, interest rate, invest, Japan, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lot, lower, market, meeting, Mike Conlon, new zealand, news, nzd, oil, pound, practice, practice account, RSI, ssi, stock, time, trade, trades, USD, Yen
June 1, 2010
Euro Declines, Canada Hikes!
Now that the debt crisis in the Euro zone appears to have stabilized, the market now turns its attention to EU economic fundamentals. The outlook for the Euro is negative, as governments adopting austerity plans means that GDP growth will like stall and contract. The bounce we saw last week in the Euro was the result of short-covering as the Euro fell too far, too fast. In addition to the weakening fundamental data, political uncertainty in Germany has risen as its President unexpectedly quit. The Euro made new lows against the dollar at 1.211 in the overnight session.
Over the long weekend, news out of Australia showed that the economy there may be slowing and the RBA declined to further tighten interest rates by holding the rate steady.
In an opposite move, Canadian GDP came in better than expected yesterday the Bank of Canada’s rate decision is due out any minute.
The British pound is higher as manufacturing growth remained at 15 year highs, and housing prices rebounded showing signs of economic growth.
In addition, an apparent “fat-finger” error in the Nikkei futures market sent the index lower, though it has rebounded off of erroneous lows. World stock markets are lower, as are the US equity futures. Oil is down as well, though gold is higher as it is viewed as a store of wealth.
The market is in risk-aversion mode, though the open of the US exchanges after the long weekend could change that sentiment.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is lower as the RBA declined to hike interest rates, citing Euro zone uncertainty and a potential economic slowdown in China as threats to economic growth. In addition, building permits were down some 15%, but retail sales came in much better than expected. This shows that investors are treading cautiously down under, as housing prices may be a bit over-blown. So consumers are directing their dollars to smaller ticket items, preferring to hold off on larger investments.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is lower on risk-aversion and lower oil prices, as the market waits for the BOC rate decision to be announced. Speculation has the BOC raising rates .25% to .5%, after yesterday’s GDP report showed a gain of 6.1% vs. an expectation of 5.9%. As Canada’s largest trading is the US (the only country NOT enacting austerity measures to combat excessive debt), the Canadian economy appears to be ready to out-perform. *Edit: Rates were increased as expected to .5%, yet the Loonie is lower as the market may have been expecting more.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is lower on risk aversion, and a slowing European and Chinese economy could stall growth in the region. Also, New Zealand’s own austerity measures could contribute to economic weakness if they attempt to reign in their public debt. Business confidence figures were lower as well.
Euro (EUR): The Euro is lower as well, after the German President Koehler unexpectedly quit, further weakening Chancellor Merkel’s political alliance. Retail sales in Germany were lower, and unemployment came in lower than expected, showing signs that a weaker Euro will be good for German exports. However, unemployment in the EU overall was higher, highlighting the disparity between Germany and the rest of the EU. Meanwhile, French PPI came in higher than expected. It seems as though EU residents are preparing for the worst, and scaling back as negative economic data has a “chicken and egg” effect in the region. The long-term trend of the Euro is still down, and while a lower Euro will help exports and tourism to bring cash to the region, it is going to get worse before it gets better. Now if the banks can just hang on.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is higher across the board, as house prices had their largest annual increase in nearly 3 years. In addition, UK PMI figures showed that manufacturing expanded at its highest level in over 15 years, and money flows are leaving the Euro to invest in the Pound as the economic outlook is far better in the UK which could mean a normalization of monetary policy later in the year.
Dollar (USD): The US dollar is bid vs. the commodity currencies as risk aversion is the theme to start the trading week in the US after the long holiday weekend. Stock futures are off of their lows, and we could see a rebound today if the ISM manufacturing figures come in better than expected. This has become a familiar “pattern”, as fear in the Euro zone and Asia start the session in risk-aversion mode, which flips to risk-taking if all appears well here in the US.
Yen (JPY): The Yen is also higher on risk themes, and also received a bid as a “fat finger” mistake in the Nikkei futures markets sent the index lower. The Yen trades somewhat inversely to the Nikkei, so it started off higher. Regional instability from a potential Korean conflict could cause volatility in the Yen if it escalates.
Long weekends in the US markets can sometimes have disastrous results as trading does not cease in other areas of the world. Risk and fear can cause markets to react violently, as correlations between the markets move back toward their natural order.
This weekend, the market was fairly lucky in that while there was some negative news, there was nothing earth-shattering that would cause a panic.
In the forex market, we are now seeing shifts in the balance of power, as some nations strengthen while others weaken. If the Euro debt crisis can be contained, then expect traders to revert back to the fundamentals as we enter the summer trading season.
While the summer session is normally slower, I’m not certain that will be the case this year. With the markets on high alert and fear still rampant in the market, expect volatility to remain high.
And that’s just what we as traders want!
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, alert, AUD, Aussie, Australia, bank, British, cad, canada, China, commodity, course, crisis, currenc, currencies, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, decision, dollar, dow, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, Europe, fear, forex, forex market, free, fundamental, fx, fxedu, gbp, gold, holiday, Il, index, interest, interest rate, interest rates, invest, investor, ISM, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, market, Mike Conlon, money, new zealand, news, nzd, oil, pound, practice, practice account, rate decision, retail sales, RSI, sentiment, short, ssi, stock, time, trade, trader, trades, trend, unemployment, USD, wealth, Yen
April 29, 2010
Markets Force Action!
In the wake of the S&P downgrades of European debt, pressure is being applied to Germany in a call to action, politics be damned. The Euro is in real danger of structural collapse, as exploding debt and rising yields are encouraging defaults every day this continues without resolution.
In the meantime, unemployment figures came in better than expected in Germany which may ease the political tension over the bailouts which may allow the government to take action more swiftly. European stocks are higher as earnings have been improving. So what we are seeing is an improving economic picture, with this debt situation looming as the fly in the ointment. While having a lower Euro is good for growth, there needs to be a debt resolution to prevent it from falling beyond the point of no return.
In other news, UK home prices were higher; New Zealand maintained interest rates, and US initial jobless claims were better than the previous month. So this all adds up to a resumption of moderate risk-taking, with all eyes and ears on the EU and its debt crisis.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is higher on risk-taking and on a report that home prices growth is slowing showing signs that the previous five rate hikes have been helping to allow growth to proceed moderately.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is higher this morning on risk-taking as oil is higher to just above $84. The BOC Governor Carney will be testifying today and the market may be concerned that he may attempt to further squash hopes of a rate hike in a follow up to yesterday’s quote about nothing being “pre-ordained”. The Loonie is getting an added boost from the New Zealand decision to keep rates stable.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is higher on risk-taking as well despite the fact that the RBNZ maintained rates at a record low 2.5% citing “elevated risks” in the marketplace. Future rate hikes will be forthcoming down the road provided a broad-based recovery continues. In addition, trade balance figures came in better than expected, showing signs that indeed recovery is taking place.
Euro (EUR): Unemployment figures came in much better than expected, and Euro zone confidence figures came in better than expected despite all of the problems related to the Greek debt crisis. I wrote a while back that the term “Chermany” was going to be important in the global economy in the near future. China is to the US what Germany is to the rest of the EU. They export goods and encourage debt. China has prospered due to its currency peg; and Germany due to its EU participation. If Germany continues to drag out this bailout process, they may ultimately be responsible for the Euro’s demise.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is higher this morning as UK home prices advanced the most since 2007, halting a two-day decline as risk appetite returned to the market. Expect the Pound to continue to trade sideways until after the outcome of the next week’s elections.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is lower this morning as the Fed left rates unchanged yesterday and continued with the “extended period” language. They also signaled that sustained job gains would be necessary to consider moving on rates. Initial jobless claims figures dropped 11K to 448K, but don’t let the “Lamestream” Media fool you into believing that the jobs picture is getting better. This is most certainly a case of “less bad” and at this pace the Fed will be keeping rates low for a very LONG “extended period”.
Yen (JPY): The yen is lower on a resumption of carry trades as yield-seeking is taking place.
Within the next two weeks, we should have a good idea of what level of risk there is in the marketplace. There are two major elections occurring over that time span, one in the UK, the other in Germany.
If the current regime in Germany can maintain its power in the May 9th elections, than expect a resolution to happen rather quickly despite its unpopularity. If the balance of power should shift, then there could be further delays which could cause problems with Greece’s next debt payment due in mid-may.
So until these elections pass, I expect some range-bound trading. We will certainly have days of different measures of risk based on economic data points, but the election and subsequent resolution to the EU debt crisis is paramount.
So my bias is toward risk appetite, with a quick trigger to get out if risk-aversion should heat up. In other words, I am keeping my trading short-term and taking what the market gives me, rather than trying to guess what will take place. I advise traders out there to do the same.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
Tags: account, AUD, Aussie, blog, cad, carr, carry trade, China, course, crisis, currenc, currency, currency market, currency trading, data, decision, dollar, dow, economic, economy, EUR, Euro, Europe, fed, forex, forex market, forextrading, free, fx, fxedu, gbp, home, idea, Il, interest, interest rate, interest rates, jpy, Kiwi, live, loonie, lower, market, Mike Conlon, new zealand, news, nzd, oil, pound, practice, practice account, RSI, short, ssi, stock, stocks, time, trade, trader, trades, unemployment, USD, Yen