Forex Blog

January 3, 2012

The Eurozone PR Battle Continues

When it comes to Greece and the Eurozone, it is difficult sometimes to tell just who is playing whom. The latest example of the delicate dance within the Eurozone was on display today following the release of a carefully-worded communiqué issued by a Greek government spokesperson. In this memo, the government announced that should Greece not receive the latest bailout pledge as negotiated late last year, it may have no other choice but to exit the Eurozone.

Obviously, this message had more than a hint of a threat about it. However, the intended audience for the message was not the Eurozone lawmakers – it was meant for the people of Greece themselves.

As part of the emergency funding agreement, Greece is required to implement massive spending cuts and new taxes to close the deficit gap in exchange for emergency funding. As can be imagined, these measures are not being welcomed with open arms by a population accustomed to easily-accessed public pensions and other government-funded largesse.

Germany too is dealing with its own PR nightmare. As the de facto “leader” of the Eurozone thanks to its leading economy, Germany is also a principal contributor to the massive bail-out packages. Naturally, there is a growing resentment amongst German taxpayers who feel they are being forced to pay the bills of sovereign countries that financed their lifestyle thanks to the generosity of others.

Reinforcing the thought that German politicians are ready to play “hard ball” with Greece sends a subtle message to the German taxpayer cum voter, that their interests are being protected.

Meanwhile, the Greek government continues to face a rebellious population locked in what it feels to be a life and death struggle to maintain spending on social programs. Today, it was the turn of the nation’s doctors and pharmacists to go on strike and demonstrate against planned spending cuts.

In light of this opposition, the government maintains that failing to meet the conditions attached to the rescue plan is, in reality, a vote to secede from the Eurozone. This is clearly an attempt to convince the public to accept the conditions and vote in favor of the government’s planned spending cuts.

While there is certainly a battle going on to save the Eurozone, the real fight is the one to influence public perception.

November 3, 2011

Papandreou Faces Revolt; Greece Faces Dismissal From Euro

Greek Prime Minister faced an open revolt during an emergency cabinet meeting last night as several members of his government threatened to side with the opposition for tomorrow’s confidence vote. Greece’s continued participation within the Eurozone became even more tenuous as several Eurozone leaders suggested that forcing Greece to exit the Eurozone may be the best approach for saving the single currency.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Papandreou at a torrid meeting in Cannes on Wednesday night that Athens would not receive a cent more in aid until it votes to meet its commitments to the euro zone. Greece was due a vital 8 billion euros installment this month.

Source: Reuters

August 23, 2010

No Clear Majority in Australian Election Results

Trading was down on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) following last week’s election where neither the ruling Labor party nor the opposition coalition could manage the 76 seats needed to claim a clear victory. Both sides are now courting a handful of independent members of parliament in a bid to garner sufficient support to form a majority.

Source: BBC News

March 1, 2010

Cable Stumbles as Hung Parliament Appears Likely

Fears of a hung parliament continue to weigh on the pound as the beleaguered currency fell to a 10-month low on Monday. Prime Minister Gordon Brown is required to call a national election by June and early polls suggest that the earlier lead held by the opposition Conservative party, has narrowed considerably with some forecasters predicting a hung parliament. A hung parliament occurs when no party has a clear majority, opening the door to the possibility of a coalition emerging to form the new government.

Meanwhile, Pimco (Pacific Investment Management Company) issued a warning that the UK’s creditors are “significantly concerned” that Britain does not have a plan to deal with the country’s growing deficit.

“If the UK cannot combine higher growth with fiscal adjustment”, said Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of Pimco, “then its debt dynamics will continue to deteriorate to a point where its creditors will become significantly concerned.”

Source: BBC News

September 25, 2009

All About Yen!

Another strong day for the yen today, up against all of the currency pairs commonly followed.    Its particularly strong against GBP (+2.07), as I’ve noted over the last couple days the problems facing the Sterling.   So while GBP and USD get all of the attention with their QE (quantitative easing) programs, the Yen just quietly chugs along.

A few factors helping the yen:

1) Speculation that Japanes companies (exporters) are repatriating their funds (profits).  This is a seasonal factor that is supporting the yen right now.

2) From Bloomberg: “Japan’s Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii reiterated his opposition to intervention in foreign-exchange markets to curb the yen’s gains yesterday. The yen has added 3 percent versus the dollar this month.”  One of the biggest fears of yen traders is BOJ intervention, so this bodes well for the yen… for now.

3) The yen is being replaced in the “carry trade” as traders are now substituting USD as the vehicle of choice.

Overall, Japan hasn’t been affected as badly as the US and UK in the credit crisis, so look for JPY to benefit from the safe harbor trade.

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