Forex Blog

August 29, 2011

Finland’s Demand for Collateral Shows Little Faith in Greece

On July 21st, Eurozone officials together with the International Monetary Fund agreed to provide Greece with a second bailout package. This bailout became necessary when Greece found itself unable to borrow funds at an acceptable rate. The premium demanded by investors pushed the yield spread on Greek debt to record highs and Greece simply could not afford this additional expense.

In order to prevent an outright default on upcoming debt obligations, a commitment of 109 billion euros in emergency funding was quickly brokered. The only problem is that now, more than a month later, individual governments continue to bicker on the details and the money is still to be delivered.
Finally deciding that enough is enough, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet today urged officials to end the delay tactics and formally approve the rescue package.

“The full and timely implementation of the July 21st agreement between the heads of state or government is of essence,” Trichet said in comments to the European Parliament’s economic affairs committee earlier today.

Finland Demands Collateral for Greek Loan

Germany’s growing contempt with the need to provide hundreds of billions or euros in support for at-risk countries has been well-documented. However, in recent weeks it has been Finland that has been most vocal in opposition to the hand-outs and last week, Finland decided to take an unprecedented step to protecting its investment in Greece.

On August 19th, Finland announced that it had reached a “side” deal with Greece in which Greece agreed to place 1 billion euros in accounts managed by Finland to serve as collateral in a private deal between the two countries. This news has not been well-received by the other Eurozone members.

First of all, Greece is broke so just where exactly did Greece come up with the cash to serve as collateral? There can be only one answer – and the idea that any portion of the money already fronted to Greece to stave off bankruptcy now being used as collateral for Finland must be particularly galling to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. After all, Merkel has faced a great deal of heat from German taxpayers and on more than one occasion has been forced to defend her government’s actions to voters at home.

Secondly, only Finland so far has negotiated a collateral deal with Greece. This is either a stroke of genius on the part of Finnish authorities or an example of unmitigated nerve. Either way, Finnish Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen has made it clear that Finland’s participation in the rescue scheme is entirely dependant on this bilateral agreement to ensure protection for Finland’s investment.

Still, this doesn’t say much for Finland’s confidence in Greece’s prospects, does it?

August 4, 2011

ECB Holds Rates at 1.5%; Urges Boosting Bailout Fund

Citing a slowing of the economy in the face of the sovereign debt crisis engulfing several Eurozone countries, the European Central Bank said today it will keep the benchmark lending rate at 1.5 percent. This marks a shift in the central bank’s outlook and is a dramatic reversal since the previous interest rate announcement last month which raised rates by twenty-five basis points.

In a press conference following the interest rate announcement, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet described the current level of economic uncertainty as “very high”. As a result, Trichet revealed that the ECB will conduct a “supplementary refinancing operation” to provide additional loans to the region’s banks.

Indeed, there is evidence that the central bank has already started a new program to buy government debt to help countries forced to offer higher borrowing costs to attract investors. Spain, for instance, was able to raise 2.2 billion euros (US$3.1 billion) on Thursday but was forced to offer 4.8 percent on three-year bonds compared to 4.0 percent for a bond auction held in June.

The rate represents a risk premium of 407 basis points over the benchmark German bunds touching a new high for the post-euro era. Despite the increased risk, demand was deemed to be very strong. This suggests there is reasonable confidence in the market that Spain is still capable of meeting its debt obligations.

July 5, 2011

Weaker Euro Retail Sales

A 1.1 percent decline in Eurozone retail sales is the latest indicator to suggest the Eurozone economy is likely entering a weak period – the fact that Germany led the way in taking retail sales lower is cause for outright concern. If the Eurozone’s dominant economy is indeed weakening, this could lead to a shift in tone from the region’s central bank.

For the past two months European Central Bank officials have raised expectations of a rate hike with President Jean-Claude Trichet all but committing to a rate hike later this month with more to follow. This latest result, however, could force the Bank to rethink its position.

“As signs of an economic slowdown pile up, we continue to think that, while the ECB will deliver an interest rate hike this week, it is likely to hold off from hiking rates further this year and probably for the most part of 2012 as well,” said Emilie Gay, European economist at Capital Economics.

Source: The Canadian Press

June 30, 2011

ECB Again Signals Interest Rate Hike

Comments made today by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet once again point to a likely interest rate increase when the ECB meets next week to deliver its July statement. Inflation did hold steady in June but it remains well above the Bank’s inflation rate target.

“We are strongly determined to secure that inflation expectation remain firmly in-line (with our expectations),” ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet told the European Parliament’s economic and monetary affairs committee. “The current monetary policy is accommodative and … as I said we are in a state of strong vigilance,” he said.

The phrase “strong vigilance” has regularly been deployed to signal a rate hike in the past.

Source: Reuters

June 9, 2011

ECB Signals Interest Rate Hike Likely for June

European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said to day that “strong vigilance” is needed to ensure inflation is held at bay. The latest feedback confirms “continued upward pressure on inflation,” Trichet said in Frankfurt today after the ECB kept its benchmark lending rate at 1.25 percent.

Source: Bloomberg

UK Interest Rates Held Steady at 0.5%

Despite inflation climbing to 4.5 percent in April from 4 percent the month before, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has voted to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5 percent. This is the 27th straight month that rates have been held steady,

While inflation remains a concern and is expected to climb to 5 percent by the end of the quarter, the increase is primarily due to rising utility, gasoline, and food prices. This reality poses a dilemma for policy makers – increase interest rates to combat inflation but this will likely hurt the overall economy through higher borrowing costs, or leave interest rates low and risk further price escalations.

Most economists feel it is still too early to raise interest rates but if inflation does continue to surge, the Bank of England will have little choice but to hike rates to slow the ascent of prices.

May 26, 2011

Dollar Weaker on Interest Rate Speculation

The U.S. dollar was down 0.7 percent in mid-day trading in New York today on reports that first quarter growth was less than expected. The latest employment news also indicated that 424,000 new unemployment benefit claims were filed last week exceeding predictions by more than 10,000.

The weaker-than-expected results gave rise to increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue to lag other Central Banks with respect to interest rate increases. Last month, the European Central Bank lifted the benchmark lending rate by a quarter point to 1.25 percent thereby ending a stretch of nearly two years of holding the line on rates. The Fed has maintained its record low 0.25 percent rate even longer and few expect an increase prior to the end of the year.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet added to the dollar’s troubles earlier today when he noted that the Bank was particularly concerned that rising commodity prices could lead to inflation and that the Bank would continue to monitor prices. Readings on this vary, and while it may not mean that rates will necessarily rise at next month’s meeting, it is clear that inflation is near the top of the Governing Council’s list of concerns.

At the very least, it is widely accepted by market observers that the ECB will move to raise interest rates long before the Fed makes a similar move. This reading of the situation – combined with the weaker U.S. employment and consumer spending data – is why the euro has gained ground on the dollar today. This advance comes despite concern over the fate of the shared currency in light of the European debt crisis.

Euro Still Dogged by Credit Crisis

Even as the euro gains on the dollar, it continues to lose against other currencies. In May alone the euro has lost nearly five percent to the yen on fears that the situation in Greece could deteriorate to the point that billions in debt could require restructuring. This really is unchartered territory and no one can say with certainty how markets will react should investors be forced to extend maturity dates or accept lower payouts as part of a restructuring.

Not helping matters is the growing public backlash against the so-called austerity programs ordered by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in return for emergency funding. Greece has been plagued by large riots since government spending cuts were first announced and now opposition parties in Spain have said they will refuse to support the government in its attempts to trim the deficit.

March 17, 2011

ECB Supports European Stability Mechanism

With the continuation of violence in the middle east and the tragic events in Japan taking most of the headline space, it may be tempting to think that the Eurozone debt crisis had been solved. It hasn’t. Even after today’s European Central Bank’s call to support a draft making the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) a permanent fixture, the matter of Eurozone debt is far from settled.

The ECB issued a statement urging EU countries to support the ESM’s stated goal of providing “temporary financial support to Member States whose currency is the euro experiencing impaired access to market financing”.

The call for support comes just days after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet argued for greater punitive sanctions against Eurozone debtor nations.

“Member states should need to make a payment following the first violation of the criteria, and face a penalty for repeat offences,” Trichet told Der Spiegel. “We will not do this for ever. This measure is, like all our extraordinary measures, temporary.”

March 7, 2011

Interest Rate Speculation Boosts Euro

The euro has made steady gains against the dollar for the past week as speculation intensifies that the European Central Bank will lift interest rates sooner than previously expected. The euro matched a four-month high this morning reaching $1.4020 in early morning trading in New York today.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is scheduled to speak in Basel, Switzerland today where some observers believe Trichet will signal a rate hike could come as soon as April.

Source: Bloomberg

February 28, 2011

Pressure Mounts for Eurozone Rate Hike

If last week’s musings by European Central Bank Governing Council member Yves Mersch failed to convince observers that a Eurozone interest rate hike is on the way, today’s inflation numbers should provide sufficient evidence. In an interview published on February 22nd, Mersch said that policy makers would be taking a close look at the need to raise interest rates at the upcoming March 3rd meeting. Today’s release of the latest European inflation numbers certainly backs Mersch’s comments.

According to the European Union’s Luxembourg-based statistics office, inflation in the Eurozone rose to 2.3 percent in January from 2.2 percent the month before. While the actual result is slightly less than the predicted 2.4 percent increase, this is still the fastest rate of growth in the region since October 2008. In fairness, a forty percent jump in the price of crude oil is partially responsible for the surge in prices. However, when excluding volatile energy prices, inflation still rose by 1.1 percent in January compared to the 1.0 percent increase for December.

European Central Bank ECB

European Central Bank

In addition to Mersch, other ECB officials have also taken on a more hawkish stance of late. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet stated recently that the Bank is increasingly concerned that accelerating prices will force wages higher further exacerbating the potential for inflation. And just last week, ECB Board member Juergen Stark noted that the Bank was prepared to act “decisively and immediately” to ensure price stability.

The increasing belief that an interest rate hike is on the fast track is reflected in the bond market. German two-year bonds fell last week as investors sat on the sidelines for fear of locking in yields just prior to a rate hike. Other market events – namely the crisis in the mid-east – eventually took precedence and longer term bonds gained on concern that rising oil prices could slow the recovery but overall, it is clear that the bond market is factoring in a rate hike.

With respect to the timing of an increase, a recent survey conducted by Bloomberg revealed that the majority of respondents believe the ECB will leave the benchmark lending rate unchanged at one percent when it meets on March 3rd. However, the likelihood of an increase has been moved forward significantly and a majority of market watchers are now predicting a rate change by the middle of the year.

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