Forex Blog

April 18, 2012

Euro Joins Risk Rally But More Cautious Than Other Markets

Filed under: Forex News — Tags: , , , , , , , — admin @ 8:13 am

By Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

  • Risk correlated asset well bid after IMF raises global growth forecasts
  • Canadian Dollar outperforms following upbeat Bank of Canada
  • Risks still associated with Spain; Thursday auction results in focus
  • China still showing signs of slowdown; expected to weigh on markets
  • Looking for US Dollar to find renewed bids over coming sessions

The rally in risk correlated assets on Tuesday was impressive and market participants took the opportunity to aggressively buy back into global equities, with the US stock market leading the charge. As was to be expected, commodity currencies performed well on the renewed optimism, with the Canadian Dollar standing out after receiving an added boost from a more upbeat Bank of Canada outlook on the local economy. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar managed to shrug off an early dovish Minutes, with AUD/USD rallying back above 1.0400. Lack of any meaningful first tier economic data releases did not stop investors from being active, and a good deal of the risk-on price action was attributed to the news that the IMF has raised its 2012 global growth forecasts to 3.5% from 3.3% and upped its assessment for the G7 economies.

Still, we are uncomfortable buying into this risk rally and contend that markets are locked within a choppier consolidation that will ultimately lead to yet another bout of risk-off trade and intensified concern with the outlook for the global economy. While we did see some supportive comments on Spain on Tuesday, and even though auction results were better than expected, there is still a lot of risk associated with the Eurozone, and these risks pose potential threats to the broader macro environment. The Euro has reacted accordingly, and has been far more reluctant to join in the market rally over the past few sessions, which we believe is quite telling. The more significant 2014 and 2022 Spanish auction results are due tomorrow, the outcome of which will help to clearly define the underlying sentiment in the region.

Data out of China has also not been impressive, and the latest news that average home prices in 70 major cities have posted their first Y/Y decline since government property curbs were imposed 2 years ago, offers additional evidence of an economy which is showing cooling signs. As we have stated a number of times over the past several months, we believe that an accelerated China slowdown is still on the horizon which will manifest as the third phase of the global macro recession which began in 2008. This should put more pressure on global equities and correlated currencies like the commodity bloc and emerging market FX, while at the same time benefitting the US Dollar on flight to safety bids and the attractiveness to a US economy which was first into the crisis and likely to be the first to exit.

April 13, 2012

EU Capital Flight disloyal to EUR

The euro area’s financial troubles appear to be flaring up again, as this week’s gyrations in the Spanish bond market show. In reality, they never went away. And judging from the flood of money moving across borders in the region, Europeans are increasingly losing faith that the currency union will hold together at all.

In recent months, even as markets seemed calm, sophisticated investors and regular depositors alike have been pulling euros out of struggling countries and depositing them in the banks of countries deemed relatively safe. Such moves indicate increasing concern that a financially strapped country might dump the euro and leave depositors holding devalued drachma, lira or pesetas.

The flows are tough to quantify, but they can be estimated by parsing the balance sheets of euro-area central banks. When money moves from one country to another, the central bank of the receiving sovereign must lend an offsetting amount to its counterpart in the source country — a mechanism that keeps the currency union’s accounts in balance. The Bank of Spain, for example, ends up owing the Bundesbank when Spanish depositors move their euros to German banks. By looking at the changes in such cross-border claims, we can figure out how much money is leaving which euro nation and where it’s going.

Bloomberg

April 5, 2012

New EURO Paradigm

It was too good to be true. Until now, the lure of “almost free” liquidity has been too hard to turn down. To constantly have upbeat expectations for global growth, given the slew of data pointing to further slowing, including China, has been an expensive position to hold ever since the FOMC and Spain added their weight to global concerns earlier this week. For the EUR, Spain remains the immediate outlier. The single currency has little potential to rally considering the rising concerns over the country. The lack of demand for that country’s bonds, coupled with last weeks Euro M3 money supply report is leaving the market with the impression that the ECB may have to deliver liquidity again to keep periphery debt yields from spiraling higher.

This morning, the EUR is currently knocking on strong psychological support levels (1.3050-60) and is attempting to suggest that the market is about to embark on a more important move lower. This despite many juggling with their positions ahead of tomorrows NFP and the long holiday weekend. Expect North American investors to continue to limit their exposure in the run up to payrolls. There is probably a risk for a surprise either way in the announcement. Even liquidity will be a concern due to the holiday. However, its remains unclear if market wants to add to their dollar hoard on a weak number or if the impact on sentiment is enough to revers some of the dollar gain this week.

Yesterday’s ECB meeting was overall a non-event, however, Draghi was able to counter punch the hawkish comments over the past three weeks from the Bundesbank by first, repeating the traditional statements from most Cbankers that all unconventional measures are, by “nature, temporary and that price stability remains the anchor of the monetary policy decision.” Second, after this sleight of hand, the rest of his tone from the ECB’s prepared monetary statement was very much biased on the dovish side. Why? Inflation which is “the key” for the ECB and currently running above their +2% target, was explained away by an unchanged statement, repeating that it will remain above their desired target this year with upside risk prevailing.

However, he also reaffirmed that over the medium term inflation risks are seen as “broadly balanced and in line with price stability.” Interestingly, he indicated in the press conference that there has not been any step up in the rhetoric on inflation over the past month. There is a risk to price stability by “gauging” so its necessary to look to the core-inflation (+1.5%) and its that that remains within the policy line. Third, clearly the ECB is taking some liberties with inflation in dealing with the debt crisis and its affect on growth. It has too; “downside risks” prevail as indicated by Draghi referring to the impact of the EU high unemployment rate. The president’s comments that the discussions on an “exit strategy” were premature certainly go against a hawkish Bundesbank.

On one seems to be anticipating any surprises from the BoE this morning. They are expected to toe the recent party line. However, that cannot be said for the country’s currency. Sterling trawls the currency lows outright after official figures showed that in February, UK manufacturing output posted its sharpest drop in two-years. However, expect the “Pound” debate to be trumped by the CHF move this morning. Against the EUR, the currency has briefly breached that 1.20 floor set by SNB. Central banks, specifically the BoJ and SNB will be expected to be out in full force if the market continues its recent developments.

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March 14, 2012

Greek Debt Woes Far From Solved

1. Convince European officials to provide another bailout to the tune of 130 billion euros? Check.

2. Persuade your creditors to “voluntarily” accept 100 billion euros less in repayment? Check.

3. Close the Eurozone debt file as “solved”? Not a chance.

Despite the unprecedented amount of financial support Greece has received over the past two years or so, does anyone seriously believe Europe’s debt problems are over? At best, Greece has avoided a near-term default, but this in no way nudges Greece any closer to sustainability. For proof, one need only look to last week’s bond yield for proof.

True, the bond auction was held prior to the official announcement confirming the second bailout package, but the market knew the deal was ready for final approval. It is also true that even with the guarantee of more bailout money and the bond swap deal in place, yields on Greek debt remains considerably higher than other Eurozone member nations.

In last week’s offering, the yield for new 11-year Greek bonds averaged around 19 percent, while 30-year bonds were in the 14 percent range. By way of comparison, the benchmark German 10-year yield is currently only about 3.6 percent.

To be blunt, these yields are simply not sustainable and there is no way Greece can afford to borrow money at the current rates. With its ability to borrow curtailed, Greece will have to rely on further spending cuts and massive tax hikes to meet its budgetary needs. Few believe this will happen.

Just look at the ferocity of the protests against the initial austerity efforts which are little more than a drop in the bucket when you consider the enormity of the present deficit gap. In order to avoid insolvency, Greece will continue to rely on assistance from the rest of the Eurozone for the foreseeable future.

It would be bad enough for the euro were it just Greece facing this predicament, but there are several other countries sharing the same fate. It’s just that Greece is the furthest along this inevitable path so it receives most of the news coverage.

Hungary Warned About its Debt

On Tuesday, Eurozone officials emerged from a hastily-arranged meeting to announce that Hungary must reduce its debt level to 3 percent of GDP by the end of this year. Failure to do so will result in the suspension of EU funds earmarked for development projects for the country.

Interestingly, Spain, facing its own fiscal challenges, received permission to run a deficit equal of 5.3 percent of GDP rather than the original target of 4.4 percent. Naturally, this is not going over well with Hungary’s government and even the Austrian finance minister is questioning why one Eurozone member is being held to a more challenging standard than other members.

Still, it is Portugal that remains the odds-on favorite to be the next sovereign nation to be forced to appeal to its neighbors for help. Following two rounds of Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LRTOs) to recapitalize the European banking system, bond yields did decline for many Eurozone nations. But even with its two-year rate declining to 12.48 percent, Portugal’s current yields are more than double this time one year ago with no relief in sight.

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March 12, 2012

After Greek Debt Swap Eurogroup turns to Spain

The expected sign off from the Euro zone finance ministers will be announced on Wednesday, but already their attention has been more focused in Spain as its set to miss its deficit targets. Ongoing austerity measures in Spain have proven not to be enough to reduce the deficit and various Finance Ministers have commented on stricter plans needed.

Spain’s newly elected center-right government has already put in place a plan to reduce spending on health and education. The proposed cuts are expected to draw the same level of protests that those in Athens earlier this year. The main goal of the social services cuts is to save at least 30 billion euros.

The largest cuts will be to infrastructure and other investments (40 percent reduction), central government ministries (12 percent reduction), layoff and salary cuts at public companies (30 percent reduction)

fxlabs heatmap

Spain is the first country to break the Euro zone rules on national budget policies and an economy far larger than Greece. The jury is still out on the ECB and their handling of the Greece bailout, but what is clear is that harsher austerity measures and bigger bailout funds will be needed if Spain is to avoid

March 9, 2012

Week in FX Europe Mar 4-9

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: , , , , , , , — admin @ 11:40 am

The Greece debt swap agreement was reached as 95.7 percent of private bondholders accepted or had clauses enacted to accept the deal. This will mean Greece has reduced their outstanding obligations by 132billion euros and the first step to securing another round of Eurozone rescue funds.

This record sovereign restructuring deal has brought praise from the E.U. top finance ministers and government representatives, but has also drawn harsh criticism from private bondholders like Bill Gross who said the swap had diminished the sanctity of bondholder’s contracts.

The ISDA will have to rule on the fate of the less than 5 percent of outstanding bonds that did not agree to the swap. A credit event can be a likely scenario, but with limited payouts after the historic swap.

The EUR benefited from the agreement, but traders are still pricing the possibility of a Greek default as elections approach and the parties who pushed for the deal have been falling behind in the polls.

Below are some other highlights of the week:


EUROPE

  • EU: Risk sentiment started on the back foot after China revised growth prediction lower for 2012. China sets modest 2012 GDP growth target of 7.5%.
  • EUR: EU services PMI was revised lower to 48.8 from the initial 49.4 estimate, falling from a 50.4 print last month. Weak prints came from Spain and Italy, at 41.9 and 44.1 respectively. Core-economies managed to sustain readings above 50. Germany again being the outlier, its PMI was revised a tad higher to 52.8 from 52.6. Meanwhile, the Irish PMI recovered strongly to 53.3 from 48.3.
  • GBP: UK services PMI fell to 53.8 from 56.0 in January, below consensus for 55. The data is consistent with modest growth and some recovery from the weak Q4. These numbers would suggest that they are not weak enough to justify a further extension in QE.
  • EU: Market weakness remains the dominant theme as Chinese authorities are now looking for a considerably softer growth outlook, and the upcoming deadline for the Greek debt swap.
  • EU: Interest rate differentials continue to move against the single currency, following last week’s liquidity injection via the LTRO.
  • EU: Euro-zone GDP contracted -0.3%, q/q, in Q3. Investment was particularly weak, dropping -0.7%, while household consumption and exports fell -0.4%.
  • EU: Analysts note that price action suggests markets are “continuing to attach a high degree of credibility to the official firewall which has been built around Greece in recent months.” In the weeks ahead, rate differentials should begin to weigh on the currency.
  • EUR: German factory orders surprised soft, falling -2.7% in February well below expectations for a +0.6% gain. Weakness was driven by foreign orders, while domestic orders remain in recovery mode.
  • NOK: Norway’s manufacturing production picked up +1.1%, m/m, in January, above the consensus for +0.4% gain. Norway’s PMI releases were strong for January and February, suggesting a rebound in growth in Q1 is likely.
  • NOK: Norges Bank indicated this week its intention to reduce the weighting of European equities and bonds in the investments of the Global Pension Fund. This could be negative for the EUR.
  • EU: The EU wants to see “clear commitments and clarification from Hungary before aid talks can start”. The EU granted Hungary one month to respond to its requests. The EU has said it would take further action on Hungary’s excessive deficit.
  • PLN: Poland’s central bank left its policy rate unchanged this week. Rhetoric from MPC members welcome zloty’s strength, as it helps to contain inflation.
  • GER: German IP surprised strong, with a +1.6%, m/m, gain, above consents for +1.1%. December production was also revised a touch higher. This is setting a strong tone for Q1.
  • CHF: Swiss headline CPI increased +0.3%, m/m, in February, but annual inflation remained in deflationary territory of -0.9%, y/y. The inflation outrun is broadly in line with the consensus forecasts and the SNB’s inflation trajectory.
  • CHF: The SNB reported a consolidated profit of +CHF13.5b for 2011, following a loss of -CHF19.2b the previous year. In 2011, foreign currency positions contributed +CHF7.7b to this profit. The SNB also confirmed that it spent around +CHF17.8b in 2011 for FX intervention.
  • Central Banks: The ECB (+1%) and BoE (+0.5%) kept their rate policy on hold this week. While still basking in the glow of the strong uptake to its most recent LTRO program, the ECB meeting made no any major announcements. With the BoE set to complete its latest +GBP50b in asset purchases in May, recent rhetoric from MPC members indicate that they judge the current policy as appropriate.

Japan gets its Wish of Weak Yen

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 11:38 am

After the tsunami that struck Japan and sent the currency to its strongest level in months government and exporters were in agreement a weaker Yen was a desired outcome. Now that it has come to pass it is not seen a blessing as that same tsunami that strengthened the Yen also crippled the countries Nuclear power production.

The Yen is now weaker but as the price of Oil, a natural substitute of nuclear energy, is on the rise (and denominated in U.S. Dollars) Japan once a trade superavit juggernaut is on the back foot as the positive impact of exports is overshadowed by the amplified negative impact of imports.

China continues its breakneck pace, albeit it has slowed down in the last month in part due to seasonal trends, but still continues to post positive figures. Industrial output grew 11.4 percent when compared to 2011. The forecasts were not met (12.4%) which has raised some concerns. Inflation was down following the Lunar New Year celebrations that impacted food prices in January (10.5 percent) compared to February (6.2 percent).

Below are some other highlights of the week:


Asia

  • CNY: China’s PM Wen Jiabao announced a moderate set of 2012 targets at the annual National People’s Congress last weekend. GDP growth is expected to slow to +7.5%, y/y, from +9.2%, y/y, in 2011. Inflation and M2 growth are expected to slow to +4%, y/y, and +14% respectively.
  • AUD: Down-under, Aussie job adverts rose a solid +3.3% last month, after an upwardly revised Jan print. Other releases showed that company profits were weak at -6.5%, q/q, in Q4, while wages and salaries rose +0.8%, q/q, in Q4 while inventories bounced back.
  • PBoC: Policy makers said that they would expand the trial of cross-border trade settlements in CNY. The number of firms who can use the CNY for trade purposes has been increased from the expanded +67k to all firms across the country. This is part of the government’s policy to expand the use of their currency in trade and eventually investments.
  • KRW: Korea’s gross FX reserves rose +$4.5b to +$315.8b in February.
  • TWN: Taiwan’s CPI inflation fell to +0.25%, y/y, in February from +2.4% in the previous month. This is due to a sharp decline in food, clothing and housing prices after the Chinese New-Year holidays in January.
  • AUD: The RBA kept its policy rate unchanged at +4.25% mid-week. The futures market is pricing and expecting policy holders to keep rates on hold for two more months. This would suggest that the AUD will have trouble finding momentum.
  • AUD: The balance of payments data showed that foreign holdings of AUD government debt reached a new high in Q4. Foreigners bought about AUD 20bn of government debt and now hold about 84% of the government securities outstanding. Aussies high carry and triple ‘A’ rating remain strong positives, but given the high level of foreign ownership, further increases should be less pronounced and a pullback becomes more likely. Stabilization in Europe could also decrease the demand for AUD debt.
  • PHP: Inflation has eased further. CPI inflation fell to +2.7%, y/y, in February, more than the consensus forecast for a decline to +3.3% from +3.9% in January. This would suggest the BSP remain dovish with ‘no’ easing bias.
  • AUD: Aussie GDP rose +0.4%, q/q in Q4, less than the consensus forecast of +0.8%. Growth in Q3 was also revised -0.2% lower to a still robust +0.8%. It’s also worth noting that the terms of trade recorded a sharp -4.7% decline over the quarter.
  • AUD: Deputy RBA Governor Lowe said that “it’s difficult to make a strong case that the exchange rate is fundamentally misaligned,” and “that makes the hurdle for intervention quite high.”
  • MYR: Malaysia’s exports grew at the slowest pace in 15-months in January, up +0.4%, y/y, from +6.1% in December. Imports rose +3.3%, y/y, from +10.4% previously, while the trade surplus widened to +MYR8.75b from +MYR8.31b in December.
  • JPY: Japan’s current account balance posted a record deficit of ¥437b in January, worse than the consensus forecast for a ¥320b deficit. The yen continues to remain vulnerable to intervention and periods of carry trade rebuilding.
  • AUD: Aussie employment fell (-15.4k vs. +5k) but was offset by rebound in hours worked. The loss was driven entirely by a fall in part-time employment as full-time employment was flat on the month. The unemployment rate rose slightly but remained in the +5.0-5.2% range and analysts note that the rebound in hours worked more than offset the retracement in part-time employment.
  • NZD: RBNZ kept rates on hold at +2.5%, but sounded cautious over the currency strength. Policy makers signalled that they remained comfortable with the current policy setting and acknowledged recent improvement in global sentiment and signs of domestic recovery.
  • NZD: The RBNZ’s inflation projection and 90-day interest rate path were revised lower, with inflation now expected to fall to +1.7% in Q4 and the short term interest rate expectation lowered to 3%. GDP growth for 2012 was revised higher to +3.3% from +3% previously.
  • KRW: The BoK kept its policy rate on hold at +3.25%, as widely expected. Governor Kim sounded less dovish than before and highlighted that Korea’s exports are showing steady expansion and that the economy is unlikely to contract in Q1. Policy makers seem happy with gradual won appreciation.

AMERICAS Week in FX

EUROPE Week in FX

February 22, 2012

Greece on a diet for EUR recovery

The EUR returned to a level above 1.3230 after confidence was restored in the 17 country currency by the passing of the Greek bailout. Default is still on the horizon as the terms imposed on Greece are harsh and have drawn criticism from economists who warn that the lessons from Argentina should not be forgotten.

Greece has the difficult task of cutting its deficit from 160 percent of GDP down to 120 percent while in the midst of a recession. It is clear what the EU got out of this deal. Greece is likely to default as the social pressure will be too intense and the proposed tax increases and wage cuts will bring protest to the streets.

The real winners are Italy and Spain which get to decrease their yields as the ECB has bought them time.  Spain’s 10 year bond yield is 5.08 percent down from last year’s high of 6.7 percent . Italy’s 10 year yield is down to 5.4 percent down from 7.1 in December. Will this extra time be used wisely is the question?

Which leads to the uncertain part of the deal. Greece is the first of the so called PIGS to be in this position, not the last. Portugal, Italy and Spain are expected to join if they cannot get their economies in order. But that is easier said than done as proved by Greece. The EU hopes that Greece (the smallest of the PIGS) is the example that the other’s will follow, and worst case scenario will serve as the example of what not implementing austerity measures in the first place will get you.

In Britain Adam Posen and David Miles stood on the wrong side of a 7-2 Bank of England vote to raise stimulus by 75 billion pounds. The 275 billion pound target will get raised by 50 billion to 325 billion pounds.  The reasons given for the lower figure were a more positive outlook on Europe than that at the end of 2011. Not the strongest endorsement after David Cameron’s comments during Davos.

February 17, 2012

ECB To Swap Greek Bonds to Avoid Loss

Several Euro zone officials told to press, that The European Central Bank (ECB) plans to swap its Greek bonds for new ones to ensure it isn’t forced to take losses in a debt restructuring.

The ECB holds around 50 billion euros of Greek bonds as a result of its Securities Markets Program that started in May 2010, aimed at restoring the transmission of monetary policy on financial markets distorted by the sovereign debt crisis.

Greece is planning to introduce collective-action-clauses (CACs ) into its bond contracts to allow a majority of its bondholders to force all holders into a new bond exchange. CACs typically make all bondholders subject to losing part of their capital in a retrospective action that does not require the assent of all lenders. To ensure that the ECBs bonds aren’t forced into this exchange, it plans to swap its existing bonds for new Greek bonds that won’t contain these clauses.

An exemption from collective action clauses, or CACs, would mean the ECB would not have to participate, should the Greek government impose involuntary losses on bondholders. That may occur if not enough private creditors agree to a voluntary swap.

If this ECB plan goes ahead, it may appear that the ECB is receiving preferential treatment. If the ECB is in the market buying bonds, with the subordination of investors to the central bank, the actual losses will be distributed over a smaller pool of bonds, giving investors even larger losses.

It would raise questions about whether the ECB is senior to private-sector bondholders, not only in the case of Greek debt, but also regarding the debt of other euro-zone nations that the ECB may be purchasing.

The ECB within its Securities Markets Program has also bought bonds including those of Spain, Portugal and Italy totalling 219.5 billion euros.

Greece will submit legislation to parliament on Feb. 21 to allow the use of CACs in a debt-swap process that will start on Feb. 22 and conclude on March 9.

In the meantime, according to some sources, bond swaps could already take place over the weekend, and the new bonds the ECB would receive, would have the same terms as the original ones.

Sources: Reuters and Bloomberg

Another Intraday EUR Squeeze?

Filed under: OANDA News — Tags: , , , , , , , — admin @ 4:38 am

In the past 24-hours, the market has seen an aggressive EUR reversal higher from support found at 1.2975. The move is allowing analysts to take dead aim on a stronger rebound, back above the 1.32 handle that we had briefly occupied earlier in the week. The change in sentiment comes from the bit of relief on the European front allowing the market to focus on fundamentals, specifically US data that seems to be improving day-over-day. Another round of strong US releases yesterday is attempting to boost risk sentiment and punishing the greenback. However, it would be very non-European not to believe that another nervous weekend lies ahead despite the intraday turnaround.

The aggressive squeeze put on the weaker EUR shorts was caused by the Greek government believing that a deal is done. This occurred after German sources yesterday indicated that a plan to delay the overall deal to Greece by providing a bridging loan to pay next months bond redemption had been dropped, thus paving the way for the country to get a second +EUR130b bailout after next Monday’s Euro finance ministers meeting.

Aiding risk sentiment is the news that the ECB plans to swap its Greek debt holdings for new bonds once debt restructuring negotiations are complete. The central bank is expected to be exempt from the so-called ‘collective action clause.’ An exemption means the ECB would not have to participate if the Greek government imposes involuntary losses on bondholders from its PSI program.

Allowing the ECB not to incur losses means they could distribute the profits from the holdings to the second Greek aid package. Swapping into new bonds would make it easier to impose losses on other remaining holders. Obviously, there are cries of preferential treatment. An exemption could be creating a two-tier system, which would discourage investment in other peripheral debt markets. In theory, this will eventually weaken the EUR. However, its not an issue for today. Allow the leaders to ink a deal first before we make that connection.

Stronger US data yesterday is expected to put the final squeeze on the weaker shorts this morning, as there is little else on the radar to do so. Initial jobless claims last week beat expectations, falling to the lowest level in four years, meanwhile Philly Fed for this month came in stronger than expected, as did January housing starts. However, being M.I.A is the safest way in these headlined fueled moves.

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